Key Stats for OKTA Stock
- Current Price: ~$117 (May 29, 2026)
- Q1 FY27 Revenue: $765M, +11% YoY
- Q1 FY27 Adjusted EPS: $0.91, +6% YoY
- Q1 FY27 EBITDA: $198M, beat Street by 7.6%
- Q1 FY27 Net Revenue Retention: 107% (inflecting upward)
- FY27 Revenue Growth Guidance (raised): 9%–10%
- TIKR Model Price Target: ~$141
- Implied Upside: ~49%
How Okta Stock Surged 23% on Earnings Release: Revenue Beat, Margin Hold, and an AI Pipeline Nobody Has Seen Before
Okta stock (OKTA) jumped 23% on May 29 after the identity security company reported Q1 FY27 revenue of $765M, beating the $751.79M Street estimate by 1.76% and growing 11.19% year-over-year.
New product bookings delivered the sharpest signal inside the quarter, with the portfolio representing approximately 25% of Q1 total bookings, up meaningfully from Q1 of the prior year.
Net revenue retention inflected upward to 107%, a development that Todd McKinnon, CEO and Co-Founder, attributed directly to Okta’s rising strategic importance with enterprise customers.
McKinnon stated on the Q1 FY27 earnings call that “if you look at our 12% revenue growth, you look at net retention inflecting up to 107, cRPO of 12%, that’s being driven by Okta being put in a more strategic light because of this thought leadership in AI.”
Okta for AI Agents reached general availability in April, and Auth0 for AI Agents is now shipping, giving Okta the only independent identity platform that addresses both sides of the enterprise agent security problem simultaneously.
The AI product pipeline is the largest the company has ever recorded for any new offering, and while contributions were not material to Q1 results, the average deal size on AI-specific contracts is already running significantly larger than the company average, according to CFO Brett Tighe on the Q1 earnings call.
Partnerships with ServiceNow, Amazon Bedrock Agent Core, and Google’s Agent Gateway, plus launch partner status on OpenAI’s GPT 5.5 Trusted Access for Cyber, position Okta as the preferred neutral identity layer across the major agentic infrastructure stacks.
Management guided Q2 FY27 for 9% total revenue growth, 26% non-GAAP operating margin, and 20-21% free cash flow margin, and raised full-year FY27 revenue growth guidance to 9-10%, with non-GAAP operating margin of 25-26% and free cash flow margin of 27-28%.
Large customers now represent 85% of ACV, up from 80%, driven by sustained investment in the enterprise segment and a go-to-market model that has reached stability after last year’s specialization into Okta and Auth0 sales tracks.
Is Okta Stock Undervalued in 2026? TIKR’s $141 Target and the AI Inflection That Changes the Math
TIKR’s base case values Okta stock at approximately $141 by January 2031, implying around 49% total return from the current price of roughly $95, or approximately 9% annualized over 4.7 years.
If Okta converts its record AI agent pipeline into material revenue contribution and sustains the new product portfolio at or above 25% of bookings, TIKR’s high case projects a stock price of approximately $239 by January 2036, implying around 153% total return, or roughly 11% annualized.
Under TIKR’s base case assumptions of approximately 9% revenue CAGR and around 23% net income margins, the mid scenario reaches approximately $187 by January 2036, implying around 98% total return, or roughly 8% annualized.
If revenue growth decelerates toward the low-case assumption of 8% CAGR and margin expansion stalls, TIKR’s low scenario produces approximately $143 by January 2036, implying around 51% total return, or roughly 5% annualized.
How Did Okta Perform in Q1 FY27 Earnings?
Okta delivered adjusted EPS of $0.91 in Q1 FY27, beating the $0.85 Street estimate by around 7%. Revenue reached $765M, growing 11.19% year-over-year and clearing the $751.79M consensus by 1.76%.
EBITDA of $198M beat estimates by 7.63%, while net retention inflected upward to 107%, confirming durable organic growth inside the existing customer base.
Management raised full-year FY27 revenue growth guidance to 9-10% and maintained non-GAAP operating margin guidance of 25-26%.
Is Okta Stock Undervalued?
TIKR’s base case values Okta stock at approximately $141 by January 2031, implying around 49% total return from the current price of roughly $95, or approximately 9% annualized.
Net revenue retention inflected upward to 107% in Q1 FY27, and new product bookings represented 25% of the quarter’s total, both supporting the base case growth assumptions.
The key variable is AI agent monetization: if Okta converts its record pipeline into a material new revenue stream over the next two to three years, the base case return is conservative.
Should You Invest in Okta, Inc.?
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