Key Stats for FedEx Stock
- Current Price: $338.31
- Target Price (Mid): ~$364
- Street Target: ~$318
- Potential Total Return: ~8%
- Annualized IRR: ~2% / year
- Earnings Reaction: +0.77% (March 19, 2026)
- Max Drawdown: 22.47% (June 10, 2026)
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What Happened?
FedEx Corporation (FDX) is a different company than it was two weeks ago, and the market is still pricing what that means. On June 1, FedEx completed the spin-off of FedEx Freight, its less-than-truckload arm, into a separate company trading as FDXF. The same day, longtime CFO John Dietrich stepped down. A week later, pilots ratified a contract with a roughly 40% wage increase. All of it lands right before the first earnings report of the new FedEx on June 23.
The stock has been a winner through the change. FDX closed at $338.31 on June 12, near the top of its 52-week range of $216.10 to $413.87, a climb of about 56% off the low. Bulls see a leaner, higher-margin parcel business finally getting credit now that the slower freight unit is gone. Bears note that FedEx shed a segment earning roughly a 12% operating margin, kept the capital-heavy air network, and just agreed to pay pilots more. The question on June 23 will start to answer: what do the numbers look like for the FedEx that remains?
The scary-looking drawdown was mechanical, not fundamental
The TIKR data shows a 22.47% max drawdown dated June 10, and that needs context. When FedEx distributed 80.1% of FedEx Freight to shareholders, the value of that business left the FDX share price and moved into FDXF. The stock dropped sharply on June 1, but holders who received one FDXF share for every two FDX shares did not lose that value. They simply hold two stocks now. FedEx kept a 19.9% stake in FDXF that it plans to sell down within 24 months. The headline drawdown overstates the damage, which is why the stock still sits near its highs.
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What the freight business took with it
The FedEx Freight investor day on April 8 made the split concrete. Incoming FedEx Freight CEO John Smith said the unit expects to generate “$8.7 billion in revenue, and approximately $1.1 billion in adjusted operating income, which translates into an operating margin of around 12%.” That quantifies what FDX no longer owns: a steady, roughly 12% margin business that FedEx Freight CFO Marshall Witt said is run for yield over volume, telling investors that “profitable growth is now our North Star.”
For the FedEx that stays, removing that segment sharpens the focus on Network 2.0, the effort to combine Express and Ground operations and strip out duplicate costs. That clarity is part of why the parent has held up through the separation.
A pilot raise and an open CFO seat
Two recent items hit the remaining business directly. Pilots ratified a new contract on June 9 with 83% in favor, delivering roughly 40% higher hourly wages in 2026 plus retroactive pay, with 3% annual raises through 2030. It clears a long-running labor overhang, but it adds cost to the Express airline just as FedEx tries to expand margins.
Meanwhile, FedEx is running without a permanent CFO. Dietrich stepped down June 1, and Claude Russ, a 24-year FedEx veteran and former CFO of FedEx Freight, is serving as interim CFO during the search. FedEx affirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook and 2029 targets alongside that news, so guidance has not changed.
Valuation looks fair, not cheap
FedEx is not expensive next to its closest peers, but it is not a bargain either. It trades at about 17x next-twelve-month earnings, above United Parcel Service at 14x, while its EV/EBITDA of roughly 11x sits above UPS at about 9x. In other words, the market already pays FedEx a premium for the margin-recovery story. That premium holds only if Network 2.0 keeps converting revenue into profit faster than UPS does.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $338.31
- Target Price (Mid): ~$364
- Potential Total Return: ~8%
- Annualized IRR: ~2% / year
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The model uses the mid-case scenario as the most balanced read of a company mid-transformation, and the result is sobering after running off the lows. It points to a target near $364 by fiscal 2030, an ~8% total return and roughly 2% a year. Most of the easy upside looks captured.
The growth drivers are modest: a mid-case revenue CAGR near 2%, supported by higher-margin healthcare and data center logistics replacing shed B2C volume. The margin driver is Network 2.0 cost takeout, lifting the net income margin toward 5%. The main risk is execution, since the thesis depends on those savings landing while a soft freight market and the new pilot wages weigh on Express. If margins expand faster than modeled, the high case implies a stock near $539 and a 59% total return. If savings disappoint, the low case lands near $370 for a single-digit return.
Conclusion
FedEx reports fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results on June 23, its first without freight. Watch the operating margin and the early read on fiscal 2027, the first guide that strips out FedEx Freight and absorbs the new pilot contract. A clean print holds or expands the parcel margin despite the wage step and reaffirms the 2029 targets. A weak one shows margin slipping before Network 2.0 savings catch up, which would put the premium valuation in question. With shares near 52-week highs and the model implying limited upside, June 23 is less about whether FedEx is a good business and more about whether the good news is already in the price.
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Should You Invest in FedEx?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up FedEx, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
