Key Stats for First Solar Stock
- Current Price: $267.31 (June 12, 2026 close)
- Target Price (Mid): ~$284
- Street Target: ~$246
- Potential Total Return: ~6%
- Annualized IRR: ~1% / year
- Earnings Reaction: 4.86% (April 30, 2026)
- Max Drawdown: 35.10% (March 30, 2026)
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What Happened?
First Solar (FSLR) has spent six weeks being talked back up by Wall Street, and the market is listening. The stock jumped nearly 9% on June 11 after UBS raised its price target, the latest in a run of bullish analyst moves. For a stock that fell 35% from its peak earlier this year, the speed of the re-rating is the story.
There is a catch. The analysts raising targets are not betting on something First Solar has already done. They are betting on a government decision that has not happened yet. That is the tension in this stock: the Street is pricing in a tariff outcome, and the company’s own fundamentals say the easy money may already be made.
Why UBS Moved, and Why It Matters
On June 11, 2026, UBS analyst Jon Windham lifted his First Solar target to $330 from $290 while keeping a Buy rating. UBS framed the upcoming Section 232 decision, a trade investigation that can result in tariffs on imported goods, as the key catalyst. The firm expects tariff levels as early as the end of June, with new orders potentially landing alongside late-July second-quarter results.
The logic is direct. Higher tariffs on imported modules would lift selling prices for a domestic manufacturer like First Solar, which could unlock a wave of orders in the back half of 2026.
UBS was not alone. GLJ Research upgraded First Solar to Buy with a $315 target in late May, reversing its own March downgrade. That reversal matters because it came from a previously skeptical voice. Consensus now sits at 12 Buys, 9 Outperforms, 11 Holds, 1 Underperform, and 1 Sell, a clearly bullish tilt.
The Fundamentals Behind the Optimism
The upgrades did not come from nowhere. First Solar reported record first-quarter revenue of $1.04 billion and record Q1 adjusted earnings per share of $3.22, alongside record volumes of 3.8 gigawatts sold. The stock rose 4.86% the day after that April 30 print.
Management is pointing investors toward CuRe, a next-generation cell technology now fully launched at its Perrysburg, Ohio, plant. CEO Mark Widmar told stockholders the rollout “is complete in Perrysburg, and our first Series 6 line is ramping consistent with expectation.” That matters because the company tied it to real money: the CuRe rollout through the first half of 2028 is expected to support up to $0.6 billion of additional backlog revenue, mostly in 2027 and 2028.
The balance sheet helps, too. First Solar ended 2025 with $3.4 billion in net cash, giving it room to fund expansion without debt while rivals struggle.
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What the Bears Still See
The case against chasing the stock is simple. The entire bull thesis leans on a tariff decision that has not been made. If the Section 232 ruling disappoints or slips past July, the expected orders may not arrive on schedule. First Solar’s 2026 guidance assumes no Section 45X tax credit sales and bakes in a tariff impact range, which makes it unusually sensitive to policy.
There is also a separate overhang. The U.S. International Trade Commission has an active investigation into imported TOPCon solar products, a competing technology, with updates posted in late May. Insiders have not bought the enthusiasm either, selling roughly $17.4 million of stock over the past three months.
Against peers, the premium is clear. First Solar trades at about 9.7 times forward EV/EBITDA versus a peer mean near 22 times and a median around 11 times for names like SolarEdge and MKS. That premium is arguably justified by First Solar’s profitability and net cash, which most solar peers cannot match. But it does mean the stock is no longer the bargain it was at its March lows.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
The TIKR Valuation Model frames the disconnect cleanly. Using the mid-case scenario, realized at the end of 2030, it values First Solar at around $284 per share
- Current Price: $267.31
- Target Price (Mid): ~$284
- Potential Total Return: ~6%
- Annualized IRR: ~1% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for First Solar stock (It’s free!) >>>
- Revenue drivers: continued U.S. manufacturing capacity expansion, plus CuRe technology adjusters that lift pricing on the existing backlog.
- Margin driver: a net income margin the model holds near 39% in the mid case as the domestic mix improves.
- Primary risk: policy, since the same tariff and tax-credit dynamics that could lift the stock could just as easily cut against it.
- Upside: a strong Section 232 ruling and faster orders could push results toward the model’s high case, well past today’s price.
- Downside: weak policy and soft pricing put the model’s low case below current levels, making the recent rally look premature.
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Should You Invest in First Solar?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up First Solar, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track First Solar alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
