Key Stats for Duke Energy Stock
- Past-Month Performance: 6%
- 52-Week Range: $111 to $130
- Valuation Model Target Price: $145
- Implied Upside: 18%
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What Happened?
Duke Energy stock shares climbed roughly 6% this past month, closing near $124 per share as investors reacted to better-than-expected earnings and higher forward guidance.
The move followed management’s introduction of 2026 EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 and extension of its 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth outlook through 2030, reinforcing confidence in steady regulated earnings growth.
The stock gained momentum after Duke reported 2025 EPS of $6.31, up 7% year over year and above the midpoint of its prior guidance range.
Management also increased its 5-year capital plan by $16 billion to $103 billion, targeting 9.6% earnings base growth through 2030 and reporting 14.8% FFO to debt for 2025.
CEO Harry Sideris called 2025 “a tremendous year of execution” and emphasized confidence in delivering in the top half of the 5% to 7% EPS growth range beginning in 2028 as load growth accelerates.
Growth visibility is supported by approximately 4.5 gigawatts of secured data center load under electric service agreements, which are expected to ramp beginning in late 2027 and accelerate into 2028.
Management also outlined plans to add about 14 gigawatts of incremental generation over the next five years, reinforcing Duke’s ability to meet rising demand while maintaining reliability and regulatory support.
The combination of earnings growth, an expanded capital plan, secured large-load demand, and clear long-term guidance helped drive shares higher this month.
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Is Duke Energy Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 4.1%
- Operating Margins: 30.3%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 17.5x
Revenue growth reflects steady rate base expansion tied to Duke’s $103 billion capital plan, which supports grid modernization, natural gas generation, battery storage additions, and infrastructure upgrades across its regulated territories.
Because Duke earns approved returns on invested capital, this expanding rate base directly supports predictable earnings growth as projects enter service.
Revenue trends show sales rising from about $25 billion in 2021 to roughly $32 billion in 2025, with analyst estimates approaching $40 billion by 2030.
That trajectory aligns with a 4.1% compound annual growth rate assumption over the forecast period.
Margin durability is supported by multiyear rate plans, grid riders, storm cost recovery mechanisms, and more than $500 million per year in nuclear production tax credits.
Duke continues targeting a long-term 15% FFO-to-debt ratio, reinforcing balance sheet stability and dividend sustainability.
Based on these inputs, the valuation model estimates a target price of $145, implying roughly 18% total upside from current levels over about 2.9 years, or approximately 5.7% per year.
At current prices, Duke Energy appears modestly undervalued, with future performance driven by regulated capital deployment, accelerating load growth, and sustained earnings visibility rather than cyclical expansion.
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