Key Stats for Upwork Stock
- Pre-market Price change for Upwork stock: -24%
- $UPWK Share Price as of Feb. 9: $19
- 52-Week High: $23
- $UPWK Stock Price Target: $24
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)>>>
What Happened?
Upwork (UPWK) stock plunged more than 22% in pre-market after the freelance marketplace reported a decline in active clients and issued disappointing revenue guidance for the first quarter.
- The sharp selloff in Upwork stock came despite the company beating Q4 earnings estimates and posting record full-year revenue.
- The main concern for investors was Upwork’s active client count, which fell to 785,000 at the end of 2025 from 832,000 a year earlier.
- That represents a drop of roughly 47,000 clients, or about 6%, raising questions about the platform’s ability to retain and grow its customer base.
- Making matters worse, Upwork guided first-quarter revenue to between $192 million and $197 million, well below the $201 million analysts expected.
- The company also issued adjusted earnings guidance that missed Wall Street’s estimates. For the full year 2026, Upwork expects revenue growth of just 6% to 8%, reaching $835 million to $850 million.
CEO Hayden Brown sought to paint a more optimistic picture, highlighting the company’s three-year transformation into a “human plus AI solution for the market.”
Upwork reported fourth-quarter revenue of $788 million and adjusted EBITDA of $226 million, both at record levels. The company also grew gross service volume (GSV) by 3% year over year in the fourth quarter to over $1 billion.
Brown pointed to strong momentum in AI-related work, which surpassed $300 million in annualized GSV during the fourth quarter, up more than 50% from the prior year.
The company is also seeing traction with Business Plus, its small-business solution, with active clients up 49% sequentially. Notably, 38% of these Business Plus clients were new to Upwork.
“We estimate that these improvements contributed $100 million in incremental GSV in 2025,” Brown said, referring to AI enhancements like improved search functionality and Uma, Upwork’s AI agent that helps clients hire faster.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Upwork stock (It’s free!) >>>
What the Market Is Telling Us About Upwork Stock
Despite the long-term promise of AI and the company’s efforts to move upmarket with larger clients, investors are clearly concerned about near-term growth challenges.
The decline in active clients suggests Upwork stock is struggling to attract new customers at the same pace it’s losing existing ones, even as spending per client increases.
CFO Erica Gessert acknowledged the issue, explaining that the company has been “focusing on growing these larger customers with longer-term relationships.”
While average GSV per active client grew 7% year-over-year to a record $5,100, and spend per contract increased 10%, the strategy appears to be coming at the cost of overall client growth.
Upwork stock is also facing headwinds from what management called “fewer low-value, high-volume contracts.” The company noted that churn declined to its lowest level in over eight quarters, dropping 130 basis points year over year in the fourth quarter.
Management expects to resume sequential active client growth in the first quarter, but investors remain skeptical.
The bright spot is Upwork’s new Enterprise offering called Lifted, which targets large companies with more than $50 million in annual contingent labor spend.
The platform has already won two new clients, and management expects it to ramp significantly in the second half of 2026.
However, Enterprise revenue declined 3% year over year in the fourth quarter as the company paused sales of legacy Enterprise plans during the transition.
With Upwork stock down 47% from its 52-week high and the company facing a weak labor market, the next few quarters will be critical to determining whether the AI-driven transformation can deliver the growth investors are seeking.
Estimate a company’s fair value instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does Upwork Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
