Key Stats for MetLife Stock
- Past week’s performance: -3.2%
- 52-week range: $65.21 to $87.39
- Valuation model target price: $104.83
- Implied upside: 37.2% over the next 2.9 years
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What Happened?
MetLife (MET) shares have traded near the mid‑$70s recently, and the stock has climbed solidly so far in 2026 as investors position ahead of earnings and guidance.
The move reflects growing confidence that rising rates and disciplined underwriting can support earnings, but sentiment remains sensitive to any change in credit quality or investment spreads.
During the past week, attention turned to MetLife’s combined earnings and outlook call scheduled last February 5, 2026, because investors expect updated guidance on capital deployment, buybacks, and growth in key regions like Asia.
Earlier this month, Evercore trimmed its earnings estimates and highlighted pressure from lower new‑money spreads and a slightly riskier commercial mortgage loan book, so this call has taken on added importance.
The firm’s cautious tone underscored that, while MetLife still screens more reasonably priced than some large‑cap peers, valuation is no longer as cheap versus mid‑cap insurers after last year’s rally. Still, the weekly action shows investors are weighing opportunity against risk.
Analysts expect book value per share to inflect higher after several years of declines driven by rate and market movements, but mark‑to‑market swings and credit conditions can still introduce volatility.
Because of that, traders reacted quickly to incremental estimate cuts and to headlines around spreads and commercial real estate exposure, even though MetLife’s underlying insurance franchises continue to generate steady premiums and fees.
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Is MetLife Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 3.3%
- Operating margins: 11.5%
- Exit P/E multiple: 7.8x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $104.83, implying a 37.2% total return from the current share price of $76.38 and an annualized return of 11.5% over the next 2.9 years.
Several factors will drive whether MetLife can deliver on those assumptions.
First, revenue growth depends on sustained demand across Group Benefits, Retirement and Income Solutions, and international segments, especially as employers look for comprehensive benefit packages and as pension risk‑transfer activity remains healthy.
Second, margins and earnings will track how effectively MetLife manages investment spreads, credit quality, and expenses, since higher rates support yields but also raise scrutiny on commercial mortgage loans and other long‑duration assets.
If these operational and capital‑allocation drivers hold, the current share price reflects a balance of macro and credit risk against MetLife’s diversified earnings base rather than aggressive optimism, which helps explain why the stock has ground higher but still trades below the model’s fair value estimate.
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