Key Stats for Simon Property Stock
- Past week’s performance: -4%
- 52-week range: $136 to $201
- Valuation model target price: $226
- Implied upside: 13% over 2.9 years
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What Happened?
Shares of retail REIT Simon Property Group (SPG) rose about 4% over the past week. And the stock closed near $200 on Friday.
The gain came after strong Q4 earnings. Simon reported record Real Estate FFO. So, it beat estimates. Net income hit $3.05 billion. But that included a $2.89 billion non-cash gain from the Taubman acquisition.
Real Estate FFO reached $1.33 billion, or $3.49 per share. And that was up 4.2% from last year. Revenue grew to $1.79 billion. So, it topped forecasts.
Simon also gave 2026 guidance. Net income should be $6.87 to $7.12 per share. And Real Estate FFO is expected at $13.00 to $13.25 per share.
During the week, Simon launched a new $2.0 billion buyback program. It runs through February 2028. And it replaces the old one with $1.7 billion left.
The company appointed Martin J. Cicco to its board. He brings real estate experience. And Simon announced $250 million in redevelopments for three properties.
Occupancy rose to 95.8%. And leasing hit 17 million square feet for the year. Sales grew 3% annually. But no major negative news hit.
The rise reflects earnings strength and capital plans. So, sentiment improved. But valuation sensitivity remains.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Simon Property (It’s free) >>>
Is Simon Property Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through mid-2028, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 7.3%
- Operating margins: 54.3%
- Exit P/E multiple: 29.7x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $226, implying 13% total upside from the current share price and a 4.3% annualized return over the next 2.9 years.
Business execution drives those assumptions. Leasing volume matters most. And occupancy gains support revenue.
Growth ties to retail sales trends. Because higher tenant sales lift rents. And redevelopments add value.
Margins depend on cost control. So, scale helps profitability. And acquisitions like Taubman boost efficiency. NOI growth is key. Simon expects at least 3% in 2026. Because domestic properties perform well.
If drivers hold, valuation captures risks. But the thesis stays intact. So, the stock trades fairly.
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