Down 33% In 2026, Can Intuit Stock Recover Over the Next 12 Months?

Key Takeaways:

• AI Innovation: Intuit’s AI agents are saving customers up to 12 hours monthly and accelerating payments by 5 days.
• Price Projection: Based on current execution, INTU stock could reach $622 by July 2028.
• Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 42% from the current price of $438.
• Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 15% growth over the next 2.5 years.

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Intuit (INTU) delivered an outstanding first quarter in fiscal 2026 with 18% revenue growth, demonstrating exceptional momentum across its AI-driven platform strategy.

CEO Sasan Goodarzi highlighted the company’s transformation into an intelligence system, leveraging data services, AI, and human expertise to drive prosperity for consumers and businesses alike.

• The company’s virtual team of AI agents reached 2.8 million customers, with the accounting agent saving users up to 12 hours monthly and the payments agent helping businesses get paid 5 days faster.
• QuickBooks Live customer growth surged 61% in Q1, showing strong demand for AI combined with human intelligence.
• Mid-market momentum continues to build, with approximately 40% revenue growth for QBO Advanced and the Intuit Enterprise Suite.
• The AI-native ERP platform is disrupting legacy systems, with a Forrester study estimating nearly 300% ROI over three years for customers.
• Total online payment volume grew 29%, reflecting continued success in helping customers manage cash flow more effectively.
• The consumer platform also showed strength, with TurboTax Live revenue up 51% and Credit Karma gaining several points of market share in personal loans and credit cards.

Recent partnerships with major accounting firms like Aprio, Cherry Bekaert, and Rehmann signal accelerating adoption in the mid-market segment, where businesses are consolidating their tech stacks onto Intuit’s all-in-one platform.

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What the Model Says for Intuit Stock

We analyzed Intuit through its AI-driven transformation and market positioning across both consumer and business segments.

Businesses increasingly need intelligent systems to automate workflows and provide actionable insights without maintaining large internal teams.

• Intuit’s platform delivers this capability while consolidating tech stacks that typically include 3 to 10 apps for small businesses and 25 to 30 for mid-market companies.
• On the consumer side, the integration of TurboTax and Credit Karma creates powerful cross-selling opportunities.
• Credit Karma contributed an entire point of growth to TurboTax last season, and with 45 million monthly active users engaging over 5 times per month, the platform shows exceptional stickiness.
• The recent OpenAI partnership provides access to 800 million weekly ChatGPT users, creating a significant customer-acquisition channel without revenue-sharing requirements.

Using a forecast of 12.6% annual revenue growth and 41.3% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $622 within 2.5 years. This assumes an 18x price-to-earnings multiple.

That represents compression from Intuit’s historical P/E averages of 29.7x (one year) and 31.9x (three years).

The lower multiple acknowledges near-term uncertainty as AI agents mature and monetization models evolve from a premium mix to potentially separate SKUs.

The real value lies in capturing the underpenetrated $300 billion TAM through platform consolidation and AI-driven automation that delivers measurable ROI to customers.

Our Valuation Assumptions

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Our Valuation Assumptions

TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.

Here’s what we used for INTU stock:

1. Revenue Growth: 12.6%

Intuit’s growth centers on platform consolidation and AI adoption.

The company delivered 18% revenue growth in Q1, with Global Business Solutions up 20% excluding Mailchimp and Consumer up 21%.

Mid-market represents a particularly strong opportunity, with 40% growth as larger businesses recognize the value of consolidating onto an AI-native platform.

Management expects Mailchimp to return to double-digit growth by year-end as mid-market sales efforts scale.

The OpenAI partnership opens a significant distribution channel to acquire new customers organically through ChatGPT integration.

2. Operating margins: 41.3%

Intuit has demonstrated consistent margin expansion through operational discipline and AI-driven efficiency gains.

The company uses AI to improve productivity across technology development, sales, customer success, and corporate functions.

Management maintains a disciplined approach to capital allocation, scaling marketing investments based on proven test results while shutting down underperforming initiatives.

3. Exit P/E Multiple: 18.0x

The market values Intuit at 18.4x current earnings. We assume the P/E remains relatively stable at 18x over our forecast period.

This represents a discount to historical averages as the market digests the transition from traditional software pricing to AI-agent monetization. However, as Intuit demonstrates the effectiveness of its AI agents and begins monetizing them through separate SKUs, the multiple could re-expand.

Strong execution across business and consumer platforms, combined with network effects from accounting partnerships, supports a premium valuation as the company demonstrates its AI strategy.

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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?

Software companies face execution risk around AI adoption and competitive dynamics. Here’s how Intuit stock might perform under different scenarios through July 2030:

• Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 11.3% and net income margins compress to 29.5%, investors still see a 47% total return (9% annually).
• Mid Case: With 12.6% growth and 31.6% margins, we expect a total return of 87% (15% annually).
• High Case: If AI agent adoption accelerates driving 13.8% revenue growth while Intuit maintains 33.2% margins, returns could hit 131% total (21% annually).

See what analysts think about INTU stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>

The range reflects execution on AI agent monetization, mid-market penetration through accounting partnerships, and successful integration of the TurboTax-Credit Karma consumer platform.

In the low case, competitive pressure limits pricing power, or AI agents fail to deliver measurable ROI.

In the high case, platform consolidation accelerates faster than expected, and AI agents drive significant customer efficiency gains that support premium pricing.

How Much Upside Does Intuit Stock Have From Here?

With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.

All it takes is three simple inputs:

• Revenue Growth
• Operating Margins
• Exit P/E Multiple

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!