Key Stats for ASML Stock
- Past 6-Month Performance: 97%
- Current Share Price: $1,435
- 52-Week Range: $556 to $1,1564
- Valuation Model Target Price: $1,982
- Implied Upside: 38%
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What Happened?
ASML Holding N.V. stock rose about 97% over the past six months, finishing near $1,435 per share, as shares steadily advanced to new highs following a series of strong earnings updates and improving visibility across the semiconductor equipment cycle.
The sustained move reflected persistent buying interest rather than a short-lived rally, even as broader markets experienced periods of volatility.
The stock moved higher as investors responded to improving earnings visibility and forward guidance
After ASML reported Q4 2025 revenue of $10.5 billion, gross margin of 52.2%, and net income of $3.0 billion, or $7.35 per share, alongside $14.3 billion in net bookings and a backlog of about $41.9 billion.
Management also guided full-year 2026 revenue to $36.7 billion to $42.1 billion, reflecting strengthening demand tied to AI-driven data center investment and advanced logic capacity expansion.
CEO Christophe Fouquet said, “the market outlook has improved notably over the last months, especially as related to the continued buildup of data centers and AI-related infrastructure.”
Institutional activity added nuance to the six-month advance. Principal Financial Group increased its ASML stake by 34.5%, while Regents of the University of California initiated a 426,959-share position worth about $413 million, making ASML one of its largest disclosed positions.
These additions were partially offset by trims from ProShare Advisors, Oppenheimer, Canvas Wealth Advisors, and Legacy Financial Strategies, pointing to selective repositioning rather than broad risk-off behavior.
Overall, the combination of improving earnings visibility, a growing backlog, and mixed but meaningful institutional flows helped explain why ASML shares climbed sharply over the past six months, with attention increasingly centered on how order conversion and capacity expansion shape results into 2026.
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Is ASML Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 14.2%
- Operating Margins: 39.4%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 31.4x
ASML’s revenue growth outlook reflects accelerating demand for advanced lithography tools as AI-driven compute, advanced logic, and next-generation memory nodes require higher lithography intensity rather than simple wafer volume growth.
Order visibility remains unusually strong for an equipment supplier, supported by a backlog of roughly $41.9 billion and customer commitments that extend multiple years ahead, which reduces earnings volatility compared to prior semiconductor cycles.
This supports the view that future returns are driven less by cyclical recovery and more by sustained pricing power, technology leadership, and expanding revenue per system as EUV and High-NA EUV adoption deepens across logic and DRAM.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $1,800, implying about 38% total upside over roughly 2.9 years, indicating the stock appears undervalued at current prices.
Results over the next year hinge on execution across several high-impact areas. EUV system shipments and backlog conversion remain central as advanced logic customers migrate toward more lithography-intensive 3-nanometer and 2-nanometer nodes.
High-NA EUV progress adds another layer of optionality, as early qualification and initial deployments position ASML for higher system pricing and longer-term margin expansion.
At the same time, recurring service revenue from the growing installed base continues to strengthen earnings quality, while dividends and share buybacks support per-share growth.
At current levels, ASML appears undervalued, with future performance driven by technology leadership, backlog execution, and structurally higher lithography intensity rather than valuation expansion alone.
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