Key Stats for Marathon Petroleum Stock
- Past week’s performance: -11%
- 52-week range: $120 to $204
- Valuation model target price: $245.75
- Implied upside: +21.1% over 2.9 years
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What Happened?
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock climbed to a fresh 52-week high last week, with shares closing near $203 on Friday. The move followed a strong fourth-quarter earnings report on February 3, when the company beat Wall Street profit estimates on the back of a 44% jump in refining margins.
Management highlighted that refining and marketing segment profit rose to about $2 billion versus roughly $559 million a year earlier, so investors saw clear evidence that margin recovery is well underway.
At the same time, Marathon returned about $1.3 billion to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and buybacks, and commentary pointed to “remarkable” buyback capacity going into 2026.
Analysts and commentators now see room for record-high prices as capital returns stay robust, even though most published ratings cluster around Neutral to Buy and average price targets sit slightly below the current quote.
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Is Marathon Petroleum Stock Undervalued?
Under the valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): -0.4%
- Operating margins: 6.0%
- Exit P/E multiple: 12.8x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $245.75, implying a 21.1% total return from the current share price of $203.00 and an annualized return of 6.8% over the next 2.9 years.
Business execution will remain the key driver behind those assumptions. Refining margins are central because fourth‑quarter results showed how a stronger crack spread can quickly lift earnings and cash flow when utilization stays high.
The company’s integrated midstream platform, anchored by MPLX, supports stable fee‑based cash flows that help fund buybacks and dividends, while also giving Marathon flexibility to move crude and refined products efficiently across regions.
Capital allocation is another focus, since management has been retiring shares at an aggressive pace and still has significant repurchase authorization remaining, but the benefit to per‑share earnings depends on sustaining strong free cash flow. If these operational and financial drivers continue to hold, the current valuation embeds expectations for steady, but not explosive, growth, which helps explain why the model’s projected returns are moderate even as the stock pushes into new high ground.
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