Key Stats for Medpace Stock
- Price Change: -15.4%
- Current Price: ~$448
- Street Target: $545
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)>>>
What Happened?
Medpace Holdings (MEDP) plummeted 15.4% to close near $448 on Tuesday
Medpace Holdings marked its steepest single-day decline in years as investors hit the panic button following a “mixed” earnings report.
While the company actually beat earnings expectations, reporting EPS of $4.67 versus the $4.18 estimate, the headline number was completely overshadowed by management’s commentary on project cancellations.
CEO August Troendle stunned the market by revealing that backlog cancellations in Q4 were “the highest they’ve been in over a year”, particularly in the high-growth metabolic (weight loss drug) category.
This revelation triggered a massive “sell the news” reaction, as the stock had run up significantly in anticipation of a flawless quarter.
Investors feared that the biotech funding environment might be cracking, leading to a wave of paused trials.
Despite the selloff, analysts at William Blair maintained an “Outperform” rating.
They argued that the market is over-extrapolating a single quarter of volatility in an otherwise healthy long-term growth story.
With the company still guiding for double-digit revenue growth in 2026 and maintaining a pristine balance sheet with nearly $500 million in cash, contrarians view the drop as a classic overreaction.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Medpace stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Medpace Undervalued Today?
During the earnings call, CEO August Troendle addressed the cancellation issue head-on.
He stated: “Cancellations were elevated again in Q4… This resulted in a lower than anticipated net book-to-bill ratio of 1.04.”
However, Troendle also emphasized the underlying strength: “Good opportunities continue to present themselves… our rate to the overall business environment is adequate and headed in the right direction.”
CFO Kevin Brady provided reassuring guidance for the future: “Full year 2026 total revenue is expected… representing growth of 8.9% to 12.8% over 2025.”
Read the full Medpace Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 Roadmap >>>
According to the Street Consensus, the stock is now trading at a discount relative to its historical growth premium.
- Street Target: $546
- Current Price: ~$449
- Potential Upside: +21.6%
Valuation Deep Dive
The investment case for Medpace is a “growth at a reasonable price” (GARP) play.
With the stock trading at ~$448, the market is pricing in a structural slowdown in biotech R&D, but the $545 target assumes cancellations will normalize.
- The Backlog Floor: Despite cancellations, Medpace ended the year with $3 billion in backlog, providing high visibility into future revenue.
- The Profit Engine: The company continues to generate industry-leading margins, with EBITDA growing 16% in 2025 even amidst headwinds.
- The Value Gap: The $545 target implies that once the “cancellation noise” fades, investors will pay a premium again for Medpace’s disciplined execution and high returns on capital.
If Medpace can deliver on its 2026 guidance and prove that Q4 was a blip, the path to $545 is paved by multiple expansions.
Conclusion: A healthy correction. With a 21.6% upside potential to $545, Medpace offers a compelling entry point for investors who believe the biotech innovation cycle is far from over.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
How Much Upside Does Medpace Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
