Key Stats — CBRE Group (CBRE)
- Current price: $152
- FY2025 revenue: $40.6B, +13% YoY
- FY2025 core EPS (normalized): $6.38, +25% YoY
- Q4 2025 revenue: $11.6B, +12% YoY
- Q4 2025 core EPS: +18% YoY (per management)
- FY2026 core EPS guidance: $7.30–$7.60 (+17% at midpoint)
- TIKR model price target: $287
- Implied upside: +89%
CBRE Stock Posts Record Q4 as Advisory and Data Centers Drive Double-Digit Growth
CBRE Group stock (CBRE) closed out 2025 with its highest-ever quarterly revenue and core EPS, as Q4 total revenues reached $11.6 billion, up 12% year over year.
Core EPS grew 18% in the quarter, with core EBITDA up 19%, both outpacing revenue growth and signaling operating leverage across the business.
Advisory Services led the quarter, with global leasing revenue up 14% and U.S. sales revenue up 27%, driven by office and multifamily.
Capital markets activity reinforced the leasing strength, with commercial mortgage origination fees growing over 20%, supported by a 23% rise in loan volume led by debt funds and CMBS.
Within the Building Operations and Experience segment, Data Center Solutions revenue grew more than 20%, and Local Facilities Management posted mid-teens growth driven by Americas expansion.
CEO Bob Sulentic framed the data center business as a structural growth driver: the integrated Data Center Solutions offering is expected to reach $2 billion in revenue in 2026, growing at 20% per year.
Project Management delivered solid revenue growth underpinned by new hyperscaler mandates in the U.S. and U.K. public sector infrastructure work, though segment margins declined due to specific one-time expenses that management expects to fully reverse in Q1 2026.
Real Estate Investments showed strong SOP growth, driven by data center land site sales, with approximately $900 million in embedded gains remaining in the development portfolio.
CBRE generated $1.652 billion in free cash flow for 2025, representing 86% conversion on core net income, above the company’s 75%–85% target range.
Capital return was active: share repurchases totaled more than $1 billion since the start of 2025, with nearly $400 million deployed since the end of Q3 alone.
Management guided for FY2026 core EPS of $7.30–$7.60, representing 17% growth at the midpoint, with the top end of the range dependent primarily on the timing of data center land site monetization.
Q1 2026 is tracking ahead, with management expecting Q1 to represent approximately 15% of full-year core EPS, a larger contribution than Q1 2025.
CBRE Stock Financials: Operating Leverage Intact, But Q4 GAAP Charges Distort the Headline
The FY2025 income statement shows gross profit expansion and normalized earnings growth running well ahead of revenue, with a single quarter’s GAAP charges compressing the full-year operating line.
FY2025 gross profit reached $7,566M, up ~9% year over year, with gross margin at 18.7% versus 19.4% in FY2024.
Full-year operating income came in at $1,294M, up just about 2% from $1,271M in FY2024, with operating margin compressing from 3.6% to 3.2%.
That compression is entirely attributable to Q4’s $279M in one-time GAAP charges: a noncash UK pension buyout and an increased fire safety remediation reserve, which management confirmed would not recur.
Stripping those items out, management stated Q4 GAAP net income would have increased 43%, and normalized EPS for the full year reached $6.38, up 25% — the clearest evidence that underlying operating leverage was intact throughout 2025.
Management guided BOE margins flat in 2026 as investment offsets operating leverage, while Project Management is expected to show margin expansion after Q4’s one-time hit fully reverses in Q1.
Valuation Model Take
The TIKR model prices CBRE stock at $286.74, implying 89.3% upside from the current price of $151.51, with an annualized return of 14.5% over the next 4.7 years.
The mid-case assumptions are: 6.7% revenue CAGR, 5.2% net income margin, and 12.8% EPS CAGR through 2030, all conservative relative to the 13.4% revenue growth and 25.1% normalized EPS growth CBRE delivered in 2025.
The Q4 report strengthens the risk/reward case: core EBITDA grew 19% in the quarter, data center revenue is tracking toward $2 billion in 2026, and Advisory Services entered Q1 2026 with atypical early-quarter strength — all suggesting the mid-case assumptions have meaningful cushion.
CBRE stock at $152 prices in considerably less than what the mid-case model implies; for investors willing to underwrite 17%+ EPS growth in 2026 and a sustained data center tailwind, the current price represents a meaningful entry discount to fair value.
The central tension: CBRE’s 2025 results validate the operating model, but the stock’s fair value hinges on whether Data Center Solutions sustains its 20% growth trajectory or becomes a peak-cycle tailwind.
What Has to Go Right
- Data Center Solutions hits $2B in 2026 revenue and sustains 20% annual growth, driven by hyperscaler demand that CEO Sulentic described as already backlogged for “a few years”
- The Project Management margin recovery materializes in Q1 2026 as management projected, reversing the full $279M charge-related distortion
- Advisory Services continues its early-2026 momentum, with Q1 expected to comprise 15% of full-year core EPS vs. a smaller share in prior years
- Industrious expands to 300+ locations by year-end 2026 (from ~200 at acquisition), contributing profitable growth to the BOE segment
What Could Still Go Wrong
- Data center land site monetization timing risk is the primary driver of the $7.30–$7.60 guidance range; if power procurement delays persist, the low end ($7.30) or below is the outcome
- BOE margin flat guidance in 2026 means any execution shortfall in Local FM or Data Center Solutions investment spending flows directly to the bottom line
- Capital markets recovery is characterized by management as “slow and steady,” with sales revenue for office and multifamily still well below prior peak levels despite U.S. sales up 27% in Q4
- The $900M in embedded development portfolio gains remains subject to power and entitlement timelines, creating lumpy earnings that are difficult to model quarter to quarter
Should You Invest in CBRE Group, Inc.?
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