Key Stats for TJX Stock
- 52-Week Range: $120 to $166
- Current Price: $161
- Street Mean Target: $172
- Street High Target: $193
- TIKR Model Target (Jan. 2031): $205
What Happened?
The TJX Companies (TJX), the world’s largest off-price apparel and home fashions retailer operating TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and TK Maxx, crossed $60 billion in net sales for the first time in its history in fiscal 2026.
Net sales reached $60.4 billion, up 7% year over year, while consolidated comparable sales grew 5% for the full fiscal year.
The fourth quarter alone delivered a 9% revenue increase to $17.74 billion, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.43 rising 16% against the prior year’s $1.23.
Ernie Herrman, Chief Executive Officer and President, stated on the Q4 2026 earnings call that “availability of quality branded merchandise in the marketplace continues to be outstanding,” citing a buyer network of more than 1,400 professionals sourcing from approximately 21,000 vendors annually.
TJX ended fiscal 2026 with 5,214 stores and laid out a long-term path to more than 7,000 locations, with 146 net new stores planned for fiscal 2027 including its first five outlets in Spain and continued expansion across Australia.
Shareholders received $4.3 billion in capital returns during fiscal 2026, and the quarterly dividend was raised 13% to $0.48 per share for fiscal 2027, backed by a new $3 billion buyback authorization.
Wall Street’s Take on TJX Stock
The full-year comp of 5% atop a 5% prior-year comp confirms that TJX stock is no longer a recession trade — it is a structural market share engine operating in a retail landscape thinned by closures and consumer value-seeking that shows no sign of reversing.
TJX’s normalized EPS grew 11% to $4.73 in fiscal 2026, and consensus projects $5 for fiscal 2027 (up around 8%) and $6 for fiscal 2028 (up around 11%), with the revenue trajectory tracking toward $64 billion in fiscal 2027 and $68 billion in fiscal 2028 as new store openings compound against a widening base.
Fifteen of nineteen analysts covering TJX rate it a buy or outperform, with a mean price target of $171.78 — roughly 7% above the current price — and the Street is watching whether the conservative FY27 guidance of 2% to 3% comp growth understates what a disruption-accelerated buying environment delivers.
Priced at roughly 31x fiscal 2027 consensus EPS against a historical trading range in the mid-to-high 20s, TJX stock appears fairly valued at current levels, with the case for further multiple expansion hinging on whether Herrman’s conservative guidance pattern produces another beat cycle that analysts and the market have not fully repriced.
The risk is that discretionary softness among TJX’s core lower-income shopper base intensifies, compressing basket sizes faster than traffic gains can offset, and breaking the comp momentum that currently justifies the premium multiple.
Q1 FY27 comparable sales — expected in the 2% to 3% range against a 3% prior-year comp — are the first hard data point: a result above 3% would force upward estimate revisions and validate the conservative-guidance read.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case model projects a price target of around $205 for TJX, anchored to a revenue CAGR of around 5% through fiscal 2031, net income margins expanding toward 9.3%, and EPS growth compounding at around 6% annually — a scenario the company’s store expansion math and vendor market access make credible.
With the mid-case implying around 28% total return at an annualized IRR of around 5%, TJX stock is fairly valued at current levels: the model prices in continued share capture and margin discipline, but the modest annualized return reflects a starting multiple that already embeds a substantial quality premium.
The bull or bear question for TJX stock comes down to one thing: whether the conservative guidance issued in February reflects management habit or genuine macro caution.
Bull Case
- Five consecutive years of 4%-plus comp growth across every division, including 7% at TJX Canada and 5% at HomeGoods, establish a track record that argues guidance is systematically understated
- Long-term store target of more than 7,000 locations represents 1,700-plus net new stores from today’s base of 5,214, providing a visible organic revenue ramp entirely independent of same-store momentum
- Merchandise availability described as “outstanding” by Herrman with buyers being slowed down across every division suggests IMU (initial markup, the margin built into the original purchase price) and gross margin upside that consensus has not captured
- A 13% dividend increase and $2.5 billion to $2.75 billion in fiscal 2027 buybacks at current prices reduce share count and support per-share EPS growth above the headline revenue line
Bear Case
- FY27 EPS guidance of $4.93 to $5.02 sits roughly 3% below the prior Street consensus of $5.18, and if macro headwinds materialize, that gap closes from the wrong direction
- A forward P/E of roughly 31x prices in a premium that historically TJX only sustained during periods of exceptional comp acceleration: a moderation to 2% to 3% comp growth would likely compress the multiple back toward the mid-20s
- Lower-income shoppers, who form TJX’s core customer base, face continued cost-of-living pressure, with basket sizes vulnerable to spending pullbacks that traffic gains alone cannot fully offset
- CEO Ernie Herrman sold 30,000 shares at $160.95 in March, a data point that carries no definitive signal but adds an overhang worth noting at a stock trading near its 52-week high of $165.82
Should You Invest in The TJX Companies, Inc.?
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