Key Stats for KeyCorp Stock
- Current Price: $21.80
- Street Target (Mean): ~$25
- TIKR Mid-Case Target: ~$31
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~44%
- Annualized IRR (Mid): ~8% / year
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What Happened?
Regional bank stocks sold off hard heading into spring. KeyCorp (KEY) hit a max drawdown of 18.57% on March 13, 2026, as tariff fears and a higher-for-longer rate outlook pressured the sector. Then on April 16, the company reported results that made that drawdown look like an overreaction.
KeyCorp reported Q1 2026 net income of $486 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, up 33% year-over-year. Revenue came in at $1.95 billion, up 10.2% year-over-year, beating Wall Street’s estimates. The stock closed up just 0.60% on the day , a reaction that barely reflected what was inside the report.
CEO Christopher Gorman said on the call: “Revenue grew 10% year-over-year, with revenue growing more than 2x the rate of expenses.” Net interest margin, the spread between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits, expanded to 2.87%, and management guided to exceeding 3% by year-end.
Investment banking and debt placement fees hit a Q1 record at $197 million, up 13% year-over-year. KeyCorp also raised its full-year net interest income growth guidance to 9% to 10% from a prior 8% to 10%, and lifted average loan growth expectations to 2% to 4% from a prior 1% to 2%.
Then there is the Scotiabank angle. In March, Bank of Nova Scotia filed to increase its ownership stake in KeyCorp from 14.99% to as much as 19.99%, pending regulatory approval. Scotiabank originally invested $2.8 billion in KeyCorp in 2024.
A strategic investor of that scale seeking to deepen its position is not a bearish signal.
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Is KeyCorp Undervalued Today?
At $21.80, KEY trades at 11.74x forward earnings. That sits roughly in line with Wells Fargo at 11.36x and PNC at 11.50x, and at a notable discount to JPMorgan at 14.03x, per TIKR.
The gap versus JPMorgan reflects the difference in earnings scale and franchise quality, but it also represents where the upside lives if KeyCorp keeps closing that gap operationally.
The buyback program is one of the most aggressive in the regional bank space right now.
KeyCorp repurchased $389 million in common stock in Q1 alone, and management committed to at least $300 million per quarter for the rest of 2026, targeting at least $1.3 billion for the full year. The stock also pays a $0.82 annual dividend per share, good for a 3.9% yield at current prices, per TIKR.
There is also a regulatory catalyst that has not been priced in.
Based on Q1 call comments, KeyCorp’s preliminary read of the revised Basel III Endgame proposal suggests a 100-plus basis point improvement to its marked CET1 ratio (a capital strength measure adjusted for unrealized bond losses) if implemented as proposed.
CFO Clark Khayat said that would give the company “more room to continue to both invest in growing client activities, but also to continue our share repurchase.”
The risk is real, though. Middle-market M&A, KeyCorp’s investment banking sweet spot, has not recovered at the same pace as large-cap advisory. Gorman acknowledged on the call that while industry advisory deal volumes are up 46%, transaction count is actually down 26%, with sponsors slow-playing deals amid macro volatility.
If that persists, the fee growth story stalls. Net interest margin improvement also depends on a stable or steepening yield curve.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $21.80
- TIKR Mid-Case Target: ~$31
- Potential Total Return: ~44%
- Annualized IRR: ~8% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model values KEY at around $31 by 12/31/30, a total return of around 44% from the current price, or around 8% annualized. The two revenue drivers are net interest income growth as NIM crosses 3%, and the priority fee businesses (investment banking, commercial payments, wealth management), which collectively grew 12% year-over-year in Q1 2026. The margin driver is the ongoing remix of the loan book away from lower-yielding consumer loans into higher-yielding commercial credits. The primary risk is a macro downturn that stalls NIM improvement and forces higher credit loss provisions. The high case prices the stock at around $44 at around 8% annualized, while the low case lands near $31 at around 4% annualized.
Conclusion
The single metric to watch at KeyCorp’s next earnings call, expected in late July 2026, is net interest margin. Management guided to exiting 2026 at approximately 3.05%. Sequential expansion toward that level in Q2 results confirms the recovery thesis. A stall reopens the margin debate and justifies the Hold-heavy analyst consensus.
KeyCorp beat on every line that mattered, raised guidance, and committed to the most aggressive buyback in its recent history. At $21.80, the market has not caught up to that yet.
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Should You Invest in KeyCorp?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up KeyCorp, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track KeyCorp alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
