ASML Stock Gained 5% Last Week as U.S.–Taiwan Semiconductor Deal Advanced

Key Stats for ASML Stock

• Past-Week Performance: 2.56%
• 52-Week Range: €435 to €1,013
• Valuation Model Target Price: €1,460
• Implied Upside: 26.5% 1.9 over years

Before reacting to ASML Holding N.V.’s recent move, check whether the current share price already reflects updated capex and export-control assumptions using TIKR’s Valuation Model for free →

What Happened?

ASML Holding (ASML) stock rose about 5% during the third week of January, following macro-driven strength across semiconductor equipment names tied to U.S.–Taiwan trade developments.

The move was tied to reports that the U.S.–Taiwan trade deal could boost chip production, benefiting key suppliers such as ASML, Lam Research, and Applied Materials.

The development mattered because ASML’s valuation is sensitive to shifts in long-term semiconductor capital spending expectations and geopolitical trade alignment.

During the period, ASML reported no changes to guidance, order demand trends, margin expectations, or its long-term outlook.

The move reflects a recalibration of expectations rather than a deterioration in the underlying business, driven by new trade-related information.

Before reading further, stress-test ASML under different semiconductor capex and exit multiple assumptions using TIKR’s valuation tools for free →

Is ASML Stock Fairly Valued Right Now?

Under the valuation model shown, the stock is modeled using:

• Revenue Growth: 11.1%
• Operating Margins: 33.6%
• Exit P/E Multiple: 44.8x

The valuation model assesses ASML through fiscal 2027, dependent on revenue growth, margin expansion, and exit multiple assumptions.

The model assumes 11.1% revenue CAGR, 33.6% operating margins, and a 44.8x exit P/E multiple.

Based on these inputs, the model estimates a €1,460 target price, implying 26.5% total upside and 12.8% annualized returns.

Execution depends on sustained EUV demand, foundry capital spending, pricing discipline, and backlog conversion supporting revenue growth and margins.

The current valuation reflects execution risk and cycle sensitivity, meaning ASML stock may remain volatile if semiconductor investment assumptions fail to materialize.

See how sensitive ASML’s valuation is to changes in EUV demand and operating margins after this move by modeling scenarios on TIKR for free →

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ASML’s stock moved on expectation recalibration. Explore how growth, margins, and multiples translate into valuation using TIKR for free →