Key Stats for Amgen Stock
- Price Change: +4.5% (Post-Earnings)
- Current Price: ~$384
- Advanced Model Target: $440
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What Happened?
Shares of Amgen Inc. (AMGN) jumped 4.5% to close near $384 on Friday, driven by a “beat and raise” fourth quarter and growing excitement around its obesity drug, MariTide.
Investors cheered new Phase 2 data presented at the ADA showing MariTide achieved up to 20% weight loss over 52 weeks without hitting a plateau.
Crucially, the drug demonstrated efficacy with monthly or even quarterly dosing, a potentially massive advantage over the weekly injections required by competitors like Wegovy and Zepbound.
Following the update, TD Cowen raised its target to $420, citing the “underappreciated” pipeline and solid guidance for 2026 revenue of up to $38.4 billion.
Analysts at RBC Capital also hiked their target to $360, noting that Amgen’s diversified portfolio provides a safety net while investors wait for the obesity windfall.
However, not everyone is convinced; Bernstein downgraded the stock to Market Perform, warning that 2026 could be a “waiting year” as the Phase 3 trials for MariTide are still ongoing.
Amgen also reported strong sales for Repatha, its cholesterol drug, which grew 44% to $870 million, further bolstering the bull case.
With the stock now breaking out of a multi-month consolidation, the focus has shifted squarely to whether MariTide can disrupt the $100 billion obesity market.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Amgen stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Amgen Undervalued Today?
During the earnings call, CEO Bob Bradway expressed high confidence that MariTide represents a “paradigm-changing” opportunity.
He stated: “We believe MariTide is the only therapy in late-stage development to offer the prospect of strong efficacy… at monthly, every other month or even quarterly dosing.”
Management also highlighted the drug’s durability, noting that patients maintained weight loss for a full year even after switching to less frequent doses.
R&D Chief Jay Bradner added: “MariTide delivered strong efficacy… representing a defining advance for the obesity field.”
The leadership team believes that by 2027, they will have a differentiated product that solves the “pill fatigue” and adherence issues of current treatments.
Read the full Amgen Transcript on TIKR to see the Obesity Strategy >>>
According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, the current rally to $384 has not yet priced in the full potential of a successful MariTide launch.
- Target Price: $440
- Current Price: ~$384
- Potential Upside: +14.5%
Valuation Model Deep Dive
The investment case for Amgen has evolved from a “dividend defender” to a “high-growth biotech” play.
The model suggests that even with conservative estimates, the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with significant optionality from the obesity pipeline.
- The Fair Value Gap: At $384, the stock trades well below the $440 target, offering a 14.5% upside that could expand significantly if Phase 3 data outperforms.
- The Growth Reality: The model forecasts a steady 10.0% Revenue growth for the next year, underpinned by Repatha and the new rare disease portfolio.
- The Profitability Check: Amgen maintains elite profitability with a Net Income Margin of 32.1%, providing the cash flow needed to fund massive R&D programs without diluting shareholders.
If Amgen can deliver on the MariTide promise, the gap to $440, and potentially beyond, should close as Wall Street re-rates the stock.
Conclusion: A blue-chip stock with a lottery ticket attached. With a 14.5% upside to the $440 target and a potential blockbuster in MariTide, Amgen offers a rare mix of stability and explosive growth potential.
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How Much Upside Does Amgen Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
