Key Stats
- Current price: ~$330 (May 1, 2026 close)
- Q1 2026 total revenue: $8.6B, up 6% YoY
- Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS: $5.15, up 5% YoY
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance (raised): $37.1B to $38.5B
- Full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance (raised): $21.70 to $23.10
- TIKR model price target: ~$468
- Implied upside: ~42%
Amgen Stock Posts a Growth Quarter as Six Key Drivers Offset Patent Erosion
Amgen (AMGN) reported Q1 2026 total revenues of $8.6B, up 6% year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $5.15, up 5% from $4.90 in the prior-year quarter.
Amgen stock moved on a result that validated the company’s “springboard year” framing: six designated growth drivers collectively grew 24% year-over-year and accounted for nearly 70% of total product sales, according to Chief Commercial Officer Murdo Gordon on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Repatha was the standout performer, generating $876M in Q1 2026 sales, up 34% year-over-year, driven by expanded prescribing in both secondary and high-risk primary prevention following positive VESALIUS-CV subgroup data published in JAMA.
TEPEZZA delivered $490M in Q1 2026 sales, up 29% year-over-year, while rare disease portfolio sales reached $1.2B, up 25% year-over-year, led by UPLIZNA at $262M, up 188% year-over-year.
Oncology continued to scale, with the portfolio generating $1.8B in Q1 2026 sales, up 25% year-over-year; IMDELLTRA contributed $258M as it solidified its position as the standard of care in second-line small cell lung cancer.
The biosimilar portfolio added $835M in Q1 2026 sales, up 14% year-over-year, with PAVBLU alone contributing $280M.
The offsetting drag was Prolia and XGEVA, which combined fell to $1.1B, down 32% year-over-year as biosimilar competition accelerated following loss of exclusivity.
On guidance, CFO Peter Griffith raised full-year 2026 total revenue to $37.1B to $38.5B and non-GAAP EPS to $21.70 to $23.10, reflecting confidence that growth drivers will more than absorb ongoing LOE headwinds.
Amgen also maintained its capital return commitments, paying a $2.52 per share quarterly dividend, representing a 6% increase over Q1 2025.
Amgen Stock Financials: Gross Margin Compression Alongside Operating Leverage Progress
The Q1 2026 income statement shows a quarter where operating income grew meaningfully year-over-year while gross margin compressed sequentially, reflecting a shift in cost structure tied to product mix and pipeline investment.
Gross margin came in at 68%, down from 73% in Q3 2025 and 71% in Q2 2025, though roughly in line with the 68% posted in Q1 2025.
Total revenues trended from $8.2B in Q1 2025 to $9.2B in Q2 2025, $9.6B in Q3 2025, and $9.9B in Q4 2025, before stepping back to $8.6B in Q1 2026, a pattern consistent with normal seasonal sequencing.
Operating income was $2.67B in Q1 2026, up 14% year-over-year from $2.34B in Q1 2025, as operating expense discipline held despite increased R&D intensity.
Operating margin was 31% in Q1 2026, up from 29% in Q1 2025 but below the 34% achieved in Q3 2025, according to the TIKR income statement.
Griffith noted on the earnings call that non-GAAP cost of sales as a percentage of product sales was 19.5%, driven by higher profit share, royalty expenses, and a shift in sales mix toward products with heavier cost structures, and that these factors are expected to continue weighing on cost of goods sold through future quarters.
He also added that non-GAAP R&D spending increased 16% year-over-year, reflecting continued investment in MariTide Phase III studies, IMDELLTRA, and Olpasiran.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s model sets a price target of ~$468 for Amgen stock, implying approximately 42% upside from the ~$330 close on May 1, 2026.
The mid-case model assumes revenue CAGR of 3% through 2035 and a net income margin of around 35%, both conservative relative to the current margin trajectory and the potential pipeline expansion from MariTide.
This Q1 report reinforces the base case without materially upgrading it: the guidance raise signals management confidence, but the model’s conservative revenue CAGR already treats MariTide as an unproven variable rather than a blue-sky driver.
For investors in Amgen stock, the risk/reward is cleaner after this quarter than before it: the LOE drag is performing in line with expectations, the growth drivers are delivering above the pace needed to offset it, and the raised guidance removes near-term downside risk to earnings.
Amgen’s growth drivers are absorbing the patent cliff on schedule, but the full valuation gap closes only if MariTide generates revenue before 2030.
Thesis Intact:
- Six growth drivers collectively generated $5.6B in Q1 2026, up 24% YoY, tracking ahead of the pace required to absorb ongoing LOE erosion from Prolia/XGEVA
- Full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance raised to $21.70 to $23.10, implying continued operational discipline through the patent cliff
- Non-GAAP operating margin guidance of 45% to 46% for the full year signals management intends to protect earnings even as R&D spend rises
- Repatha new-to-brand prescriptions in the U.S. grew 44% in Q1 2026, according to Murdo Gordon on the earnings call, providing a durable revenue growth engine independent of MariTide timing
Thesis at Risk:
- MariTide remains in Phase III with no confirmed approval timeline; TIKR’s model price target depends on assumptions that treat MariTide as unmodeled upside, not a near-term contributor
- Prolia/XGEVA combined revenue fell 32% YoY to $1.1B in Q1 2026 and management guided for accelerated erosion through the remainder of 2026, intensifying the volume required from growth drivers
- Gross margin declined to 68% in Q1 2026, pressured by royalties and mix shift, with no near-term relief expected per Griffith’s guidance on cost of goods sold
- A draft IRS notice of proposed adjustment for tax years 2016 to 2018, if sustained, could have a material impact on Amgen stock’s financial statements, adding litigation tail risk to the investment case
Should You Invest in Amgen Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up AMGN stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Amgen Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze AMGN stock on TIKR for Free →
