Key Stats for Eli Lilly Stock
- Current Price: $963.33
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,811
- Street Target: ~$1,198
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~88%
- Annualized IRR: ~15% / year
- Earnings Reaction: +3.07% (April 30, 2026)
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What Happened?
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has lost roughly 11% year to date, even as the company delivered one of the strongest earnings beats in pharmaceutical history and raised full-year guidance by $2 billion. The gap between business performance and stock performance is driving a real debate: is this a rational repricing of execution risk, or an overreaction that has opened a meaningful entry point?
Bears are watching Foundayo (orforglipron), Lilly’s newly launched oral GLP-1 weight-loss pill. In its second week on pharmacy shelves, Foundayo secured 3,707 prescriptions, well behind the 18,410 Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy achieved in its comparable launch week. That gap sent LLY down roughly 3.7% in a single session before Q1 earnings reversed the move. Bulls counter that the injectable franchise is accelerating ahead of expectations and the pipeline has never been deeper.
The unresolved question: does Foundayo’s slower start reflect a genuine competitive disadvantage, or the normal lag of building a brand from scratch?
Q1 2026 Earnings Were Not the Problem
The numbers were not close. Revenue came in at $19,799 million, up 56% year over year, beating the consensus estimate of $17,813.96 million by 11.14%. Non-GAAP EPS hit $8.55 against an estimate of $6.79, a beat of nearly 26%. The stock gained 3.07% on earnings day.
Mounjaro’s worldwide revenue rose 125% to $8.66 billion, with $4.2 billion from the U.S. and $4.4 billion internationally, up from $1.2 billion in Q1 2025. Combined with Zepbound, the two drugs produced $12.8 billion in global revenue in the quarter, adding $6.7 billion of growth versus Q1 2025, according to CFO Lucas Montarce on the earnings call.
The international story tends to get underweighted. Patrik Jonsson, President of Lilly International, reported on the call that Mounjaro holds above 53% share outside the U.S. and around 60% in Brazil and Korea. The total international incretin market grew 77% year over year as measured by IQVIA gross sales. In China, Mounjaro’s addition to the National Reimbursed Drug List (NRDL, meaning government-approved coverage) drove volume growth that far outpaced the accompanying price concession.
The non-GLP-1 portfolio often gets overlooked. Lilly’s Immunology, Oncology, and Neuroscience medicines collectively grew 160% year over year. Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib, a BTK inhibitor for chronic lymphocytic leukemia) posted 79% global sales growth. Inluriyo captured over 35% share of new patient starts in metastatic breast cancer in its first full launch quarter. As Chief Scientific Officer, Dr. Dan Skovronsky noted on the call, even without the obesity franchise, Lilly would rank among the fastest-growing major pharmaceutical companies in the world.
Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $82 billion to $85 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.50 to $37.00.
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Why LLY Is Still Down 11% Despite the Beat
Three factors explain the disconnect.
The first is Foundayo’s early prescription numbers. In its opening week, Foundayo drew 1,390 prescriptions according to IQVIA data presented by Jefferies, compared to 3,071 for oral Wegovy during its own launch week in January. Lilly’s management pushed back firmly. Ilya Yuffa, EVP and President of Lilly USA, noted on the call that 80% of the roughly 20,000 Foundayo patients treated as of April 30 were new to the GLP-1 class entirely, indicating market expansion rather than share-taking. He also flagged that full in-person promotion to healthcare providers only began April 17, commercial access at two of the three largest pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) was only confirmed by mid-May, and direct-to-consumer TV advertising would not launch until Q3. “This is a new brand, new medicine,” CEO Dave Ricks said on the call.
The second is U.S. pricing. Net realized price declined 7% in Q1, with Montarce noting on the call that, excluding a one-time rebate adjustment, the underlying decline was approximately 10%. Ricks addressed this directly: every time Lilly reduces GLP-1 pricing, volume expands in a way that is nonlinear to the price reduction. The China NRDL example demonstrated it domestically and internationally. The manufacturing base is largely fixed-cost, so pricing pressure at the margin does not destroy unit economics.
The third is multiple compression. LLY’s forward P/E contracted from 35.55x in March 2025 to 25.90x today, per TIKR data, reflecting the market’s recalibration of GLP-1 growth expectations rather than any deterioration in the business itself.
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Two Tailwinds Not Yet in the Numbers
Two developments from the past week matter beyond the earnings beat.
First, the FDA proposed excluding tirzepatide and semaglutide from its 503B outsourcing facility bulk drug list, the regulatory mechanism enabling large-scale compounding of copycat GLP-1s. If finalized, this permanently closes a channel that has been diverting self-pay volume away from branded products.
Second, the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge begins July 1, making Foundayo available to eligible Part D beneficiaries at $50 per month. This is a direct access unlock that has not appeared in Foundayo’s prescription numbers yet. Ricks described an 18-month window in which population-level health data is expected to build the case for permanent Part D obesity coverage beginning in 2028.
On the pipeline, since the last earnings call, Lilly reported positive Phase III data from five trials, initiated six new Phase III programs, and announced four acquisitions. Retatrutide, a triple GIP/GLP-1/glucagon receptor agonist, posted Phase III data in type 2 diabetes showing A1c reductions of 1.7 to 2.0 percentage points and average weight loss of 25 to 37 pounds across doses, per Dr. Skovronsky on the call. Its obesity trial, TRIUMPH-1, reads out this quarter.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $963.33
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,811
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~88%
- Annualized IRR: ~15% / year
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The mid-case model uses a revenue CAGR of around 12% and a net income margin expanding to around 43% by 2030. The two primary growth drivers are continued global scaling of the GLP-1 franchise and the maturing non-GLP-1 portfolio across oncology, immunology, and neuroscience. The margin driver is operating leverage: revenue is compounding at roughly two to three times the pace of operating expenses. The primary risk is U.S. GLP-1 pricing; any acceleration of net price declines beyond current guidance would compress the revenue line before volume catches up.
The upside scenario at around $3,248 by 12/31/30 becomes relevant if retatrutide’s obesity data confirms the early profile and Foundayo scales into Medicare access as management expects. Even the low-case at around $1,927 implies positive returns from today’s price, giving the model a wide margin for execution risk.
Against peers, LLY trades at 21.03x NTM EV/EBITDA versus a pharmaceutical peer median of around 8x per TIKR’s Competitors page. That premium reflects 42 active Phase III programs, a 47.3% LTM EBIT margin, and a GLP-1 franchise with no credible near-term generic threat. The Street’s mean target of approximately $1,198 (18 Buys, 6 Outperforms, 6 Holds, 1 Underperform, 1 Sell) implies around 24% upside. The TIKR mid-case at ~$1,811 through 12/31/30 is higher, reflecting a longer horizon and pipeline contributions not yet in consensus models.
Conclusion
The metric to watch at the August 6, 2026, earnings call is Foundayo’s weekly prescription run rate. Three catalysts should have moved the number by then: two-PBM access confirmed by mid-May, Medicare Bridge access starting July 1, and full-scale TV advertising in Q3. If weekly scripts have not meaningfully closed the gap with oral Wegovy, the premium multiple faces pressure. If they have, the current price will look like the obvious entry point the TIKR model suggests it is. At around 26x forward earnings against 42 active Phase III programs and industry-leading free cash flow growth, the 11% year-to-date decline has created a setup worth taking seriously.
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Should You Invest in Eli Lilly?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
