Key Stats for Upstart Stock
- Current Price: $32.74
- Target Price (Mid): ~$170
- Street Target: ~$44
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~421%
- Annualized Return (Mid): ~42% / year
- Earnings Reaction: (15.04%) on 2/10/26
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What Happened?
Upstart (UPST) stock is up more than 22% in April yet sits 62% below its 52-week high of $87.30, and that gap captures exactly where sentiment stands. Bulls believe Upstart’s AI-powered lending platform is building a capital flywheel the market has not priced in. Bears remain unconvinced that the funding model is durable enough to justify paying up. Q1 2026 earnings on May 5 will be the next test.
This week gave the bulls a concrete data point. On April 29, Upstart announced a forward-flow agreement with Fortress Investment Group, a global alternative asset manager with $54 billion in assets under management, under which Fortress agreed to purchase up to $1.25 billion of consumer loans from Upstart’s platform over 15 months.
Sanjay Datta, President, Capital and Enterprise at Upstart, said the deal “strengthens our resilient and stable foundation to continue driving down the cost and complexity of borrowing.” Fortress Managing Director Matt Biczak said it positions them “to continue generating durable, compelling risk-adjusted returns across market environments.” The stock dipped about 5% on the day on what appeared to be profit-taking after a 22% monthly rally, not a reaction to the deal itself.
The Fortress agreement is the third major institutional capital commitment in roughly 90 days. In March, Upstart closed a $1 billion forward-flow deal with Eltura Ventures and Aperture Investors. In February, it announced a $200 million inaugural auto forward-flow deal with Wafra. The company has also applied for a national bank charter, which would eventually add deposit funding as a capital source and reduce reliance on institutional partners.
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Is Upstart Undervalued Today?
At 14.33x NTM EV/EBITDA and 14.39x NTM P/E, Upstart is priced like a mature, slow-growth business, not a company that grew full-year 2025 revenue 64% and where consensus projects a compound annual growth rate of around 21% through 2030. The Street’s mean target of $43.93 from 15 analysts implies only about 34% upside. With 6 Buys, 2 Outperforms, 6 Holds, 1 Underperform, and 2 Sells, nearly half the coverage universe is neutral or negative. That skepticism creates the opportunity, or confirms the caution, depending on what Monday’s print shows.
What makes the bull case more interesting than the multiples suggest is what Datta said at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference in March. Asked whether capital partners had shown any reticence amid private credit market concerns, he answered “none at all, really,” pointing to the recent Structured Finance Conference as carrying a “constructive and confident” tone because underlying consumer credit was performing well. Three institutional deals in 90 days back that up.
The more instructive part of the conference was Datta’s take-rate framework. Upstart’s unsecured personal lending take rates grew from around 5% in the early years to 10-12% as its AI models improved at avoiding default, generating margin that did not previously exist. Those rates are now moderating as Upstart reinvests the advantage into borrower pricing to drive volume.
In secured lending (auto and HELOC), upfront take rates start around 4% with servicing economics of around 200 basis points per year added on top as loans amortize. Datta’s point: secured products will follow the same maturation curve as unsecured, just starting lower. That has meaningful implications for how margins scale over time and is not yet fully embedded in how the Street is pricing the stock.
Upstart’s LTM EBITDA of $99 million on $1,076 million in revenue puts the current margin at around 9%. Management’s own target is 25% adjusted EBITDA, driven by operating leverage rather than take rate expansion. Consensus already reflects this path: analysts project EBITDA of around $449 million on revenue of around $1.87 billion by 2027. Whether those numbers are achievable is the core debate.
The risks are real. Upstart’s free cash flow is negative on an LTM basis at ($275 million), and the company carries $772 million in net debt as of fiscal year 2025. The guidance shift announced at Q4 earnings, replacing quarterly targets with annual guidance and monthly origination disclosures, is the primary reason the stock fell 15.04% on February 10. Near-term visibility is limited by design, and the market is still repricing that.
On peer valuation multiples, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) trades at 25.42x NTM P/E despite a slower growth profile. At the same time, LendingClub (LC) trades at 1.08x NTM TEV/Revenue, reflecting a structurally different, more mature business. Upstart’s 14.39x NTM P/E discount to SoFi implies the market is still embedding a significant funding-risk premium. If the recent capital partner momentum changes that perception, the gap has room to close.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $32.74
- Target Price (Mid): ~$170
- Potential Total Return: ~421%
- Annualized Return: ~42% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model targets around 21% revenue CAGR through 12/31/30, driven by continued scaling of unsecured personal loan originations and the ramp of secured products (auto and HELOC), where Datta has described total addressable markets as “multiples bigger” than personal lending. The margin driver is operating leverage as fixed costs scale against faster-growing revenue. Net income margins reach around 34% in the mid case by 12/31/30.
The primary risk is funding. If institutional partners pull back during a credit downturn, origination volumes compress faster than costs can adjust. The bank charter application addresses this directly: approval would add deposit funding as a third capital source. The low case, at around 19% CAGR and around 30% net income margins, still implies around 420% total return through 12/31/30. The high case projects around 1,107% total return at around 33% annualized IRR. All three scenarios embed substantial upside from today’s price.
Conclusion
Watch the origination volume at Monday’s Q1 2026 earnings on May 5. Management has guided for approximately $1.4 billion in full-year 2026 revenue as a forward-looking target. If Q1 tracks on pace toward that, it signals Upstart is executing without the quarterly guidance the market previously relied on. A material miss invalidates the 35% revenue CAGR management has targeted through 2028 and every bull model built around it.
Three major institutional funding deals in 90 days and a bank charter application in motion suggest the capital flywheel is turning. Whether the market believes it before Monday is the only question left.
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Should You Invest in Upstart?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
