Key Stats
- Current price: ~$153 (May 1, 2026 close)
- Q1 2026 Energy Products segment earnings: $2.8B, up ~$2B YoY
- Q1 2026 upstream production (ex. external disruptions): up 8% YoY
- Permian 2026 full-year production target: 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels per day
- Golden Pass LNG Train 1: achieved first LNG in March 2026
- Qatar damage repair timeline: 3 to 5 years (approximately 3% of global production)
- TIKR model price target: $181 (mid case)
- Implied upside from ~$153: approximately 18%
ExxonMobil Q1 2026 Earnings Breakdown
ExxonMobil stock (XOM) held near $153 through a quarter defined more by geopolitical disruption than operational weakness.
Excluding identified items and estimated timing effects, EPS rose quarter over quarter from Q4 2025, according to CEO Darren Woods on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
The Energy Products segment was the headline driver, posting $2.8B in earnings for the quarter, up approximately $2B year over year and a few hundred million sequentially, according to CFO Neil Hansen on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Gulf Coast refineries ran at record utilization rates in Q1 2026, and the company increased refinery throughput by approximately 200,000 barrels per day from February to March as it expedited maintenance and deferred planned downtime, according to Darren Woods on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Upstream production faced headcount from three simultaneous external events: Middle East conflict impacts, drone attacks on Kazakhstan assets, and a Permian winter storm in January.
Stripping out those external disruptions, upstream production was up 8% year over year, according to Neil Hansen on the Q1 2026 earnings call, driven by Permian growth and record output in Guyana.
Guyana achieved record production in Q1, with the Uaru, Whiptail, and Hammerhead projects under construction and Uaru targeting first oil in late 2026.
The company remains on track to grow full-year Permian production to 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels per day in 2026.
Golden Pass LNG achieved first LNG from Train 1 in March 2026, with Train 2 expected to reach mechanical completion by year-end 2026 and Train 3 in Q2 2027, according to Darren Woods on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
The most material headwind was the Qatar LNG damage: two trains were damaged during the Middle East conflict, representing approximately 3% of ExxonMobil’s global production, with QatarEnergy estimating a 3 to 5 year repair window, according to Darren Woods on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
There were no updated full-year financial guidance figures disclosed in the call; the company reaffirmed the Permian volume target as its clearest operational commitment for 2026.
ExxonMobil Stock: What the Income Statement Shows
ExxonMobil stock is navigating a margin compression trend that has been playing out across eight consecutive quarters despite a more favorable commodity backdrop in March.
Operating income peaked at $11B in Q2 2024, then stepped down through Q3 2024 ($11B), Q4 2024 ($8.4B), and Q1 2025 ($9.7B), before declining further to $8.8B in Q2 2025, $9.2B in Q3 2025, and $7.6B in Q4 2025.
Operating margin followed the same pattern: 12.3% in Q1 2024, reaching a high of 12.5% in Q3 2024, then compressing through Q1 2025 (12%) and finishing at 9.5% in Q4 2025.
Gross margin held more resilient through the cycle: 29.5% in Q1 2024, rising to 33.3% in Q4 2024 before settling at 30.3% to 33.8% across 2025.
The Q4 2025 gross margin of 33.8% is the highest in the trailing eight-quarter window, suggesting product mix and refining economics held up even as operating leverage compressed from rising operating costs.
Meanwhile, revenues were essentially flat year over year across the 2025 quarters ($81B, $79.5B, $83.3B, $80B), with no quarter showing meaningful growth off the 2024 comparable periods.
The gap between gross margin stability and operating margin deterioration reflects rising operating expenses, a dynamic that the Energy Products segment’s record Q1 performance partially offsets entering 2026.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s model prices ExxonMobil stock at $181 under the mid-case scenario, implying approximately 18% upside from the current price near $153.
The mid-case assumes a revenue CAGR of 0.7% through 2035, a net income margin of 11%, and EPS growth of 6.3% per year, with a modest multiple compression of 1.8% annually as the market reprices oil and gas exposure over the decade.
The Q1 result modestly strengthens the risk/reward case at current prices: the Energy Products segment delivered $2.8B in earnings in a disruption-heavy quarter, and upstream volume growth of 8% (ex. external impacts) confirms the Permian and Guyana thesis is intact.
The Qatar damage introduces durable production risk not previously embedded in most models, but at 3% of global production, it is material rather than structural for ExxonMobil stock.
ExxonMobil delivered operationally in Q1 despite unprecedented disruption, but the investment argument now hinges on whether the Qatar repair timeline and oil price trajectory hold the earnings base together through 2027.
Near-Term
- Energy Products segment earned $2.8B in Q1, up approximately $2B year over year, with refining margins supported by a tightening global supply environment
- Gulf Coast refineries ran at record utilization in Q1; throughput increased 200,000 barrels per day from February to March
- Golden Pass Train 1 is producing and delivering an approximately 5% increase in U.S. LNG export capacity relative to 2025; Train 2 targets mechanical completion by year-end 2026
- Middle East supply tightness, inventory drawdowns, and potential SPR replenishment cycles all support upward price pressure in the near term, according to Darren Woods on the Q1 2026 earnings call
Long-Term
- Qatar train damage represents approximately 3% of global production and carries a 3 to 5 year repair timeline; the financial construct for the repair investment has not yet been finalized
- The TIKR model projects a revenue CAGR of only 0.7% through 2035 under the mid case, with near-flat P/E multiple expansion baked in, capping the total return horizon at approximately 47% over 4.7 years
- Operating margin has compressed from 12.3% in Q1 2024 to 9.5% in Q4 2025; structural cost discipline through the enterprise-wide platform transformation is a multi-year project, not a near-term margin catalyst
- Guyana, Permian, Mozambique, and Papua New Guinea represent the long-term production growth pillars, but final investment decisions on the latter two LNG projects are expected later in 2026 with no timeline certainty on first LNG
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