AMD Stock Up 12%. Here’s the $400 Valuation Upside Case

Key Stats for AMD Stock

• Past-Week Performance: 12%
• 52-Week Range: $76 to $267
• Valuation Model Target Price: $401
• Implied Upside: 55% over 1.9 years

Before reacting to Bernstein’s price-target raise, check whether AMD’s recent 12% move already reflects AI expectations using TIKR’s Valuation Model for free →

What Happened?

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock rose about 12% over the past week, trading near the $250 level as shares extended gains following a strong rally earlier this month.

Last week’s move followed Bernstein raising its price target to $225 from $220, reflecting increased confidence in AMD’s AI execution.

Bernstein acknowledged progress in AMD’s AI roadmap while noting customer concentration risk, with OpenAI currently the only sizable Helios server customer.

The brokerage also highlighted that the OpenAI ramp begins later this year, reducing pressure on near-term AI revenue expectations despite longer-term optimism.

Bernstein’s note left AMD’s guidance, demand trends, and long-term outlook unchanged.

The move reflects a recalibration of expectations rather than a deterioration in the underlying business, following reinforcement of the existing AI narrative.

Before reading further, check whether AMD’s post-move valuation still hinges on customer expansion beyond OpenAI using TIKR for free →

Is AMD Stock Fairly Valued Right Now?

Under the valuation model shown, the stock is modeled using:

• Revenue Growth: 34.3%
• Operating Margins: 27.4%
• Exit P/E Multiple: 34.5x

Under valuation model assumptions through 2027, AMD outcomes depend on execution across growth, margins, and valuation inputs.

The model assumes 34.3% revenue CAGR, 27.4% operating margins, and a 34.5x exit P/E multiple by 2027.

Based on these inputs, the model estimates a $401 target price, implying 54.6% total upside, or 25.2% annualized returns.

Execution depends on sustained AI-driven demand, customer expansion beyond OpenAI, pricing leverage, and margin improvement from scale and product mix.

AMD stock valuation reflects execution risk and sensitivity to assumptions, meaning outcomes may vary despite strong recent momentum and elevated expectations.

AMD jumped this week on AI optimism, but how much of that upside depends on execution? Run a quick valuation check on TIKR for free →

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After AMD’s rally near $250, stress-test the stock under different AI ramp and margin scenarios using TIKR’s valuation tools for free →