Key Takeaways
- Visa gained 13% and Mastercard 12% in the past month (through Friday’s close), while the Nasdaq 100 fell 6%.
- Neither company has reported new results during the run, so both look like holds until they do.
- Mastercard’s forward P/E has climbed from 23.3x in June to 29.3x, just under its five-year average of 31.0x, and the mean analyst target is only 8% above Friday’s close.
- Visa reports on Oct. 27 and Mastercard on Oct. 29, and Mastercard has guided to full-year revenue growth at the high end of the low double digits.
Visa (V) gained 13% and Mastercard (MA) 12% in the past month (through Friday’s close), while the S&P 500 slipped 1% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 6%. Mastercard set a record close on Thursday, then gave back 1.5% on Friday.
Neither company has reported a quarter since late July. So the run mostly reflects where investors are moving their money.
Chips out, card swipes in
As AI chip stocks sold off, investors went looking for steadier growth, and card swipes fit the bill. Both networks set records along the way.
Mastercard also gave the rally a story of its own. On Oct. 15, it launched its Global Money Platform with BVNK, the stablecoin company it bought in August for up to $1.8 billion. Businesses get one connection for regular currencies and stablecoins alike. The platform also offers stablecoin-linked cards in more than 130 countries, with payouts in more than 40 currencies planned for 2027.
Visa moved the same day, taking stablecoin funding on Visa Direct from a pilot to commercial use.
Mastercard hasn’t said what the platform will earn, and real revenue is likely years away. Still, it plugs into the part of the business that’s already growing fastest. Value-added services rose 18% in the second quarter, against 8% for the payment network.
TIKR tracks 39 analysts on Mastercard. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Mastercard, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Mastercard’s Analyst Ratings
Washington cuts both ways
On Oct. 16, CNBC reported that U.S. officials pressed Beijing on Mastercard’s access to China during talks in Bangkok. Visa won approval on Oct. 13 to start preparing its own wholly owned card-clearing business there, while Mastercard still handles yuan payments through a joint venture and has no approval yet. But Trump and Xi are due to meet again in November.
The other side: President Trump is backing the Credit Card Competition Act. It would make big card issuers give merchants a second network to route over besides Visa or Mastercard. That bill helped helped push Mastercard below $500 this spring. This time, the stock climbed right through the news.
Investors are paying up again
Since Mastercard bottomed in early June, its forward P/E has climbed from 23.3x to 29.3x…
That bigger multiple accounts for most of the stock’s 32% climb from June’s low. Even so, it’s still a touch under Mastercard’s five-year average of 31.0x.
So has Wall Street chased the stock?
Barely. The mean target sits just 8% above Friday’s close, even with Baird, Goldman Sachs and Bernstein now above $700.
Oct. 29 has to back the record
Mastercard reports its third quarter on Oct. 29. Management has guided to full-year net revenue growth at the high end of the low double digits. And analysts expect $37.3 billion of revenue this year, up 14% from 2025. Cross-border volume, up 12% in the second quarter, is the number to watch. Visa reports first, after the close on Oct. 27.
I wouldn’t take profits on Mastercard while its multiple is still below its own five-year average and revenue is growing in the low teens. But I wouldn’t buy more the week it reports, with the Street’s mean target just 8% above the price. Visa ran on the same story, so I’d treat it the same way.
A quarter at the top of the guide gives the rally earnings to stand on. But a miss after a 12% month would hurt more, with so little room left to the Street’s targets.
So what is Mastercard stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
