Key Stats for Ulta Beauty Stock
- Current Price: ~$471 (June 3, 2026)
- Q1 FY2026 Revenue: $3.2B, +11.1% YoY
- Q1 FY2026 Adjusted EPS: $7.74, +15.5% YoY
- Q1 FY2026 Gross Margin: 40% (+100bps YoY)
- Q1 FY2026 EBIT: $448M, +11% vs. Street estimate of $405M
- FY2026 Diluted EPS Guidance (raised): $28.36–$28.80, +10.6%–12.3%
- TIKR Model Price Target (January 2031): ~$706
- Implied Upside: ~50%
Ulta Beauty Stock Delivered a Clean Beat in Q1 — Then Fell Anyway
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) turned in one of the cleaner earnings prints in its recent history this quarter, delivering 11.1% net sales growth, a 100-basis-point gross margin expansion, and a 15.5% jump in diluted EPS that cleared Street estimates by 12%.
The EPS beat was the sharpest number on the sheet: $7.74 actual against a $6.89 Street estimate, a margin that is not the result of financial engineering but of operating execution across every major P&L line.
Comparable sales growth came in at 5.3% for the quarter, driven by a 3.7% increase in average ticket and a 1.6% gain in transactions, a combination that matters because it shows both pricing power and traffic growth working simultaneously.
Gross margin expansion to 40.1% came from two specific sources: a broad-based reduction in inventory shrink across every category and every region, and improving inventory turns paired with favorable category mix from Space NK.
Kecia Steelman, Chief Executive Officer, stated on the Q1 FY2026 earnings call that “the strength of our business continued as we delivered first quarter net sales growth of 11.1%, comparable sales growth of 5.3% and 15.5% diluted EPS growth,” and attributed the result to a relentless focus on guest experience, new go-to-market execution, and broad-based category contributions.
The fragrance category was the clearest standout, delivering high-teen comparable sales growth and growing from 11% to 12% of total revenue, fueled by luxury brand newness from YSL, Carolina Herrera and Valentino, an early lead from Balmain, and innovation from exclusive brand NOYZ and its new Mylk de Parfum format.
Management raised full-year diluted EPS guidance to $28.36–$28.80, implying approximately 11.5% growth at the midpoint, and simultaneously increased the fiscal 2026 stock repurchase target from $1 billion to $1.5 billion, deploying $555 million in buybacks during Q1 alone.
The TikTok Shop launch added a structurally new customer acquisition channel, anchored in 17 exclusive brands and 30 exclusive bundles, garnering more than 5 million impressions at the inaugural Ulta Beauty World live stream event in April and generating GMV that management said rivaled top affiliate live stream performances.
The loyalty program reached nearly 47 million members, up 4% year-over-year, and the company opened a new regional distribution center commitment in Salt Lake City alongside the announcement of a flagship Times Square location expected to open in late 2027, two investments that extend the company’s operational and brand reach over the next three to five years alongside its 47-million-member first-party data asset and growing international footprint through Space NK, Mexico and the Middle East.
Is Ulta Beauty Stock Undervalued? The TIKR Model Points to ~50% Upside by 2031
TIKR’s base case values Ulta Beauty at approximately $706 by January 2031, implying around 50% total return from the current price of $471, or roughly 9% annualized over 4.7 years.
If Ulta Beauty sustains mid-single-digit revenue growth alongside the margin discipline it demonstrated in Q1, reaching the 9.5% net income margin the mid-case projects, the model produces a stock price near $706 and roughly 8% annualized returns.
A downside scenario, where revenue growth decelerates toward the low case of approximately 3.7% CAGR and net margins settle near 8.9%, still implies a stock price around $715 by 2031 and roughly 5% annualized returns, a floor that reflects the quality of the underlying business.
The bull case, requiring approximately 4.6% revenue CAGR and a 10% net income margin, produces a stock price near $1,148 by 2031, an annualized return of roughly 11% and total return of approximately 144%.
How did Ulta Beauty perform in Q1 FY2026 earnings?
Ulta Beauty delivered adjusted EPS of $7.74, beating the $6.89 Street estimate by roughly 12%.
Revenue reached $3.2B, up 11.1% year-over-year, while comparable sales grew 5.3% on combined ticket and transaction gains.
Gross margin expanded 100 basis points to 40.1%, powered by broad-based shrink reduction across every category and region.
Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $28.36–$28.80, implying approximately 11.5% growth at the midpoint, and lifted the fiscal 2026 share repurchase target from $1 billion to $1.5 billion.
Is Ulta Beauty stock undervalued in 2026?
TIKR’s base case values Ulta Beauty stock at approximately $706 by January 2031, implying around 50% total return from the current price, or roughly 9% annualized.
The company is compounding EPS at double digits, has 47 million loyalty members providing a durable first-party data advantage, and generated $204M in free cash flow in Q1 alone.
The key variable is gross margin sustainability: if management can hold roughly flat gross margin for the year as guided while SG&A growth decelerates in the second half, the base case is well supported.
Should You Invest in Ulta Beauty, Inc.?
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