Key Stats for MongoDB Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 29%
- 52-Week Range: $184 to $445
- Valuation Model Target Price: Around $520
- Implied Upside: About 29%
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What Happened?
MongoDB Inc. stock rose about 29% over the past week, recently trading near $404 per share as investors moved back into a software stock that had been pressured by fears that AI could weaken traditional database platforms. The rally showed a shift in the market narrative, with investors treating MongoDB less like a traditional database vendor at risk from AI and more like a potential beneficiary of AI application growth.
The stock moved higher because MongoDB beat Q1 fiscal 2027 expectations, showed stronger demand for Atlas, and raised its full-year outlook. Revenue rose 25% year over year to $687.6 million, non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.32 versus expectations of $1.19, and management raised fiscal 2027 guidance to $2.92 billion to $2.96 billion in revenue and $5.95 to $6.14 in non-GAAP EPS. Atlas, MongoDB’s cloud database platform for building and running modern applications, grew about 29% and now makes up about 75% of total revenue, making it the company’s most important growth engine.
Last week, MongoDB’s earnings call showed the rally was backed by stronger cloud demand, AI use cases, and better backlog visibility. Atlas revenue grew 29.4%, non-GAAP operating margin reached 18%, remaining performance obligations rose 88% to $1.46 billion, and CEO CJ Desai said MongoDB’s “data platform can truly act as a real-time system of intelligence,” reinforcing the company’s pitch that its database, search, and vector search tools can support production AI applications.
Analyst actions and peer results reinforced the move. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $380 from $335 after the quarter, while Oppenheimer raised its target to $410 from $375 after the company beat consensus and guided ahead for Q2 and fiscal 2027. The comparison matters because Snowflake, another major enterprise data platform, recently reported $1.39 billion in quarterly revenue and 34% product revenue growth, showing that investors are rewarding software companies tied to enterprise AI workloads. MongoDB still competes with Snowflake, Databricks, Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud, so the key question is whether Atlas can keep winning modern application workloads while AI demand moves from testing into production.
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Is MongoDB Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth: Around 19%
- Operating Margins: Around 21%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 53x
MongoDB’s model does not point to a screaming bargain, but it does suggest the stock could be modestly undervalued if Atlas keeps compounding at a healthy rate and AI workloads become a larger part of customer usage.
The revenue growth assumption depends on Atlas continuing to expand inside large customers, because MongoDB’s cloud database revenue grows as developers run more applications, store more data, and add features like search and vector search on the platform.
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The margin chart supports the model’s profitability assumption, with EBIT margins expected to move from around 19% in fiscal 2026 to around 21% by fiscal 2028 and higher after that.
That margin improvement depends on sales efficiency and operating leverage, since MongoDB still needs to invest in AI products, federal opportunities, and go-to-market capacity while turning more revenue into profit.
The 53x exit P/E multiple is still a premium software multiple, so the valuation only works if MongoDB sustains strong growth, keeps improving profitability, and convinces investors that it deserves to trade like a durable AI infrastructure winner.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of around $520, implying about 29% upside from the recent price near $404 over a multi-year period, indicating MongoDB appears modestly undervalued rather than deeply cheap.
At current levels, MongoDB Inc. appears modestly undervalued, with future performance likely driven by Atlas usage growth, AI application adoption, backlog conversion, and continued progress toward higher operating margins.
How Much Upside Does MongoDB Stock Have From Here?
Investors can estimate MongoDB’s potential share price, or what any stock could be worth, in under a minute using TIKR’s New Valuation Model tool.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
