Introducing Valuation Models! 
Key Takeaways:
- Stride stock could reasonably reach ~$160/share by the end of 2027, based on our valuation assumptions.
- That implies an 18.9% total return from today’s price of ~$134/share, with an annualized return of 9.2% over the next two years.
- Stride operates as the largest provider of K-12 online education in the United States, benefiting from accelerating demand for full-time virtual learning and career-focused education programs.
Stride (LRN) is an education technology company that provides K-12 online education solutions, serving students through virtual public schools, career learning programs, and supplemental educational services across the United States.
Stride benefits from structural shifts toward online learning, growing parental dissatisfaction with traditional public education, and increasing demand for career-focused middle and high school programs.
With over 240,000 enrolled students, record quarterly results, and strong demand trends heading into the 2026 school year, Stride remains positioned as the leading player in the expanding online K-12 education market.
Stride stock has delivered outsized gains to investors and has more than tripled in three years. Here’s why LRN stock could return over 9% annually through 2027 and potentially continue solid performance through 2030.
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What the Model Says for LRN Stock
We analyzed Stride’s potential using valuation assumptions based on its strong enrollment growth and improving operational metrics.
Based on assumptions of 8.6% annual revenue growth, 15.8% net income margins, and modest multiple expansion, the model estimates Stride stock could rise from $134.49/share to $159.88/share.
That represents an 18.9% total return and a 9.2% annualized return over the next two years.
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Stride stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 8.6%
Stride delivered exceptional fiscal Q3 results with sales of $613.4 million, an increase of 17.8% year over year, driven by 21% enrollment growth. Career learning programs surged 33% while general education grew 13%.
We used an 8.6% forecast reflecting the company’s maturing market position while accounting for continued online education adoption.
2. Operating Margins: 19.4%
Stride achieved record quarterly adjusted operating income of $141.7 million, up 47%, and gross margins of 40.6%, up 190 basis points.
We project continued margin expansion as the company leverages its scale and operational efficiency initiatives.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 17.5x
LRN stock currently trades at a forward P/E of 17.5x, which is in line with its average three-year multiple.
We have forecast a multiple of 17.5 times, accounting for its durable competitive advantages and recurring revenue model.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
TIKR’s valuation tool allows investors to test a wide range of outcomes based on how LRN stock performs through 2030 under different scenarios (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Slower adoption and competitive pressure → -5% annual returns.
- Mid Case: Solid execution and continued market growth → 1.1% annual returns.
- High Case: Accelerated online education adoption and market expansion → 7% annual returns.
As growth estimates are expected to normalize, it’s unlikely that Stride stock will replicate its historical gains going forward.
Our valuation model estimates that the edtech stock could underperform the broader markets over the next five years.
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TIKR Takeaway
Stride represents a solid play on the structural shift toward online K-12 education, with a market-leading position in a growing addressable market.
With an estimated 18.9% upside by the end of 2027 and potential annual returns of 9.2%, LRN stock offers steady growth exposure to the education technology sector with demonstrated ability to scale profitably.
However, if we extend the investment horizon, Stride stock might underperform due to decelerating growth rates.
This stock is best suited for investors seeking exposure to education innovation, companies benefiting from changing consumer preferences, and businesses with defensive characteristics and recurring revenue models.
The combination of strong fundamentals, favorable market trends, and reasonable valuation makes Stride an attractive consideration for growth-oriented portfolios focused on secular transformation themes.
Is LRN stock worth buying today? Use TIKR’s Valuation Model and analyst forecasts to see if it looks undervalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
