Introducing Valuation Models! 
Michael Burry, the investor who famously predicted the 2008 housing market crash, remains one of the most closely watched figures in finance. His firm, Scion Asset Management, regularly files 13F disclosures that offer a glimpse into his bold thinking. These filings only show a portion of his portfolio, but they give valuable insight into how Burry views risk, valuation, and investor behavior.
Burry is known for taking bold, often unpopular positions. He does not follow trends or chase hype. Instead, he focuses on finding situations where the market may be mispricing risk or ignoring underlying fundamentals. His style blends deep value investing with a heavy emphasis on downside protection. He often targets companies that are either misunderstood or priced for perfection, and he builds trades that benefit when reality falls short of expectations.
The most recent 13F filing from Scion, dated March 31, 2025, is a perfect example. It shows that Burry was holding put options—which increase in value if a stock falls—on six major companies: Nvidia, JD.com, Alibaba, Baidu, PDD Holdings, and Trip.com. The only traditional long position he held was in Estée Lauder. While we don’t know exact details like the strike prices or expiration dates of the options, these disclosures suggest Burry was broadly bearish on both Chinese tech stocks and the most prominent AI name in the market.
Since the filing date, the performance of these stocks has varied widely. Nvidia and Trip.com have rallied, while JD.com, Alibaba, and PDD have declined. Whether Burry is still in these trades is unknown, but examining the potential reasons behind the positions helps us understand his investment thesis. Below is a breakdown of each holding and the bear case that may have informed his view.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Position: PUT on 900,000 shares
Value as of 3/31/25: $97.5 million
Stock Performance Since 3/31: +51.1%
Nvidia has been the biggest winner of the AI boom, but Burry appears to be betting that the excitement has gone too far. The stock dropped sharply in April’s selloff before rebounding strongly, and that kind of volatility may be exactly what Burry looks for. His bear case likely includes overvaluation tied to AI hype, geopolitical risk due to chip export controls, and growing competition from AMD and Intel. If companies pull back on AI spending or if earnings disappoint, Nvidia’s stock could suffer a sharp correction. At these prices, Burry may believe the risks are not being properly priced in.
JD.com (JD)
Position: PUT on 400,000 shares
Value as of 3/31/25: $16.4 million
Stock Performance Since 3/31: -23.9%
JD.com has been under pressure due to slowing consumer demand in China, geopolitical tensions, and increased competition. The company is vulnerable to tariffs and broader weakness in China’s economy, including a fragile housing market and aging population. Burry had previously owned JD.com shares but flipped to a large put position, likely seeing limited upside going forward. He may believe the market is too optimistic about recovery in Chinese retail and that JD will continue to struggle in a tough environment.
Alibaba (BABA)
Position: PUT on 200,000 shares
Value as of 3/31/25: $26.4 million
Stock Performance Since 3/31: -20.9%
Alibaba faces a range of challenges, including regulatory pressure within China, slowing e-commerce demand, and tensions with the U.S. over data privacy and tech exports. The company missed revenue expectations in Q4 and has seen its stock fall significantly since.
Burry’s switch from a long position to a sizable put suggests a belief that the business is facing structural headwinds and that its cloud growth may be stalling. He may also be concerned about short-term disruptions from operational restructuring or U.S. scrutiny of Alibaba’s international partnerships.
Baidu (BIDU)
Position: PUT on 100,000 shares
Value as of 3/31/25: $9.2 million
Stock Performance Since 3/31: -4.4%
Baidu is heavily focused on AI and autonomous driving, but the company is operating in a difficult environment. China’s economy has been slow to recover, and the country’s aging population limits long-term growth. On top of that, Baidu is vulnerable to restrictions on U.S. chip exports, which are critical for its AI cloud business. If Baidu’s AI strategy doesn’t deliver results quickly, the stock could lose investor confidence. Burry’s put position suggests he sees more downside than upside at current valuations.
PDD Holdings (PDD)
Position: PUT on 200,000 shares
Value as of 3/31/25: $23.7 million
Stock Performance Since 3/31: -11.6%
PDD has grown quickly through aggressive pricing and international expansion, but it now faces tariff risks, shrinking domestic market share, and regulatory scrutiny in both China and the West. Burry may see this business model as unsustainable, especially if subsidies are cut or if margins come under pressure. His move from a previous long position to a large put indicates a view that growth is likely to slow and that market expectations may be too high.
Trip.com (TCOM)
Position: PUT on 200,000 shares
Value as of 3/31/25: $12.7 million
Stock Performance Since 3/31: +26.0%
Trip.com has rallied, but Burry’s bet suggests skepticism about the durability of that rebound. Travel demand in China may remain fragile given economic uncertainty, and consumers could cut back on discretionary spending. Trip.com also faces geopolitical risks and exposure to foreign markets, which could be vulnerable if global tensions rise. Despite positive analyst ratings, Burry may believe the stock has priced in too much optimism and is vulnerable if the recovery stalls.
Estée Lauder (EL)
Position: LONG on 200,000 shares
Value as of 3/31/25: $13.2 million
Stock Performance Since 3/31: +37.7%
Estée Lauder is the only company Burry was long in during Q1, and it has performed well. The stock had been heavily sold off in 2024, but Burry likely saw value in its strong brand, improving margins, and global reach. It fits his traditional approach of buying companies that are out of favor but still have solid fundamentals. As sentiment improves, this trade has started to pay off.
What Burry’s Portfolio Says About His View of the Market
Michael Burry’s March 2025 portfolio was built around one major idea: that both the AI hype cycle and the China recovery narrative had gone too far. While some of his short positions have worked well and others have gone the other direction, the underlying logic follows his long-standing strategy to focus on downside risk, avoid crowd behavior, and look for opportunities where the market may be getting it wrong.
Whether he has already exited these trades or is still holding them, the positions give us a clear window into how one of the most disciplined and data-driven investors is navigating today’s uncertain market.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
