Key Takeaways:
- Société Générale is strengthening its position as a top-tier European bank through a comprehensive transformation plan that focuses on operational efficiency, sustainable banking solutions, and an accelerated share buyback program worth €1 billion.
- GLE stock could reasonably reach €72 per share by December 2027, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 2.8% from today’s price of €70 with an annualized return of 1.4% over the next 2.0 years.
Société Générale (GLE) is strengthening its position as a leading European financial institution by executing its 2023-2026 strategic roadmap, which focuses on operational efficiency improvements, sustainable finance solutions, and enhanced capital returns to shareholders through active buyback programs.
The French banking giant operates through three complementary business divisions serving over 26 million clients across 62 countries: French Retail, Private Banking and Insurance featuring leading retail bank SG and digital bank BoursoBank; Global Banking and Investor Solutions with distinctive global leadership in equity derivatives and structured finance; and Mobility, International Retail Banking and Financial Services including Ayvens and universal banks across emerging markets.
The company delivered strong second-quarter 2025 results with group net income climbing 30.6% to €1.45 billion while revenue grew 1.6% to €6.8 billion, achieving a return on tangible equity of 9.7% and demonstrating disciplined execution of its strategic priorities.
Société Générale demonstrates strong execution under its strategic roadmap. The Group has launched an additional €1 billion share buyback program, as announced in November 2025, and has completed 68.7% of the program as of January 2026. It maintains a strong capital position with best-in-class risk management and continues to improve operational efficiency toward a cost-to-income ratio target of below 65% by 2026.
What the Model Says for Société Générale Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Société Générale stock using valuation assumptions based on its improving operational efficiency, diversified revenue streams across retail and wholesale banking, and continued focus on capital generation and shareholder returns.
Based on estimates of 2.5% annual revenue growth, 39.1% operating margins, and a normalized P/E multiple of 7.6x, the model projects Société Générale stock could rise from €70 to €82 per share.
That would be a 18.3% total return, or a 4.3% annualized return over the next 4.0 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Société Générale stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 2.5%
Société Générale achieved a strong Q2 2025 performance with group net income climbing 30.6% to €1.45 billion while revenue grew 1.6% to €6.8 billion. Growth was driven by the continued execution of its strategic roadmap focused on operational efficiency and sustainable finance solutions.
The company’s three complementary business divisions provide diversified revenue streams. French Retail, Private Banking, and Insurance continue expanding with leading retail bank SG, premium private banking services, and digital bank BoursoBank, driving customer engagement and digital transformation.
Global Banking and Investor Solutions maintains distinctive leadership in equity derivatives and structured finance. The division’s pioneering ESG franchise positions it as a leading partner in environmental transition and sustainability, with the bank included in principal socially responsible investment indices.
Société Générale’s strategic plan targets 1% to 2% annual average revenue growth through 2026 for its Financing & Advisory business. The Group focuses on developing an asset-light and advisory-driven model while extracting value from integrated leading franchises and remaining the most innovative provider of ESG solutions.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we use a 2.5% forecast, reflecting Société Générale’s ability to sustain diversified revenue generation across retail and wholesale banking while executing its transformation toward a more asset-light business model, balanced against modest European banking sector growth expectations and near-term economic headwinds.
2. Operating Margins: 39.1%
Société Générale achieved a return on tangible equity of 9.7% in Q2 2025, demonstrating continued improvement in profitability metrics. The company’s strategic roadmap focuses on structurally improving operating leverage and maintaining best-in-class risk management across all business lines.
The Group’s transformation plan includes simplifying its business portfolio, decreasing risk-weighted asset intensity by developing an asset-light and advisory-driven model, and maintaining strict cost control. Management targets a cost-to-income ratio below 65% by 2026 through continued efficiency improvements and operational optimization.
The bank’s focus on operational efficiency includes extracting further value from integrated leading franchises and being at the forefront of digital innovation, including Digital Assets and AI. Recent partnerships with AllianceBernstein and Brookfield illustrate the capability to develop innovative pathways to expand client offerings.
Based on our valuation assumptions, we use 39.1% operating margins, reflecting Société Générale’s ability to significantly expand profitability through operational efficiency gains, strategic portfolio optimization, and the transition to a more asset-light business model with higher-margin advisory and software-driven revenues.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 7.6x
Société Générale stock has demonstrated strong performance, with the shares surging close to 30% following a ‘buy’ upgrade on October 31, 2025, significantly outpacing European banking indices during the same period and reflecting improving investor sentiment toward the transformation story.
The company’s current valuation reflects its position as a diversified European banking leader with improving profitability metrics and demonstrated execution of its strategic roadmap. Historical performance shows strong returns with 294.6% total return over 5 years and 31.6% IRR, though recent valuation multiples have compressed.
Société Générale currently trades at a P/E multiple of 8.2x based on 1-year trailing metrics, down from historical averages but reflecting both near-term European banking sector headwinds and the ongoing transformation execution. The compression creates potential for multiple expansions as strategic initiatives deliver results.
Based on our valuation assumptions, we used a 7.6x exit multiple given Société Générale’s transformation toward a higher-margin business mix, the expanding opportunities in sustainable finance and ESG solutions, and resilience as a top-tier European bank with a strong capital position, though tempered by modest European banking growth expectations.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for GLE stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on execution of cost savings, growth in Africa & the Middle East, and the stability of competitive dynamics in core European markets (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Operational efficiency gains disappoint, and European banking headwinds intensify, with revenue growth falling short of targets and margin expansion delayed → -1.3% annual returns
- Mid Case: Strategic roadmap execution delivers efficiency improvements and capital returns as planned → 4.3% annual returns
- High Case: Accelerated sustainable finance growth and margin expansion significantly exceed targets, with strong capital generation enabling enhanced buybacks and potential for multiple re-rating → 8.8% annual returns
The relatively modest return profile in our base case reflects a stock that appears fairly valued relative to its near-term growth prospects. While Société Générale’s transformation plan provides a foundation for long-term value creation, the limited upside suggests patient execution will be required to generate meaningful returns for shareholders.
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How Much Upside Does Société Générale Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
