Key Stats for Western Digital Stock
- Past-week performance: +6.8%
- 52-week range: $29 to $221
- Valuation model target price: $209
- Implied upside: 4.1% over 2.5 years
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What Happened?
Western Digital stock rose about 6.8% over the past week, with shares climbing to around $200 and moving back toward the upper end of their recent trading range.
The move was driven by improving sentiment across memory and storage stocks as evidence mounted that NAND pricing pressure is easing.
Industry supply cuts and disciplined capacity additions are helping rebalance the market, which reduced fears of further pricing downside that had weighed on Western Digital earlier in the cycle.
Earlier in the week, commentary from major sell-side firms such as Goldman Sachs reinforced that shift in sentiment.
Analysts pointed to tightening supply conditions and improving pricing trends across memory markets, supporting the view that earnings pressure for storage-focused companies could ease faster than previously expected.
As shares moved higher, gains slowed near prior resistance levels. With the stock now reflecting a meaningful recovery in margins and demand expectations, trading suggests investors are weighing improving fundamentals against the reality that much of the near-term rebound may already be priced in, even as Western Digital still finished the week decisively higher.
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Is Western Digital Fairly Valued?
Western Digital is trading at a valuation that assumes a recovery in pricing and profitability, but not a return to peak-cycle conditions. The Guided Valuation Model above used these assumptions:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 15.8%
- Operating margins: 33.2%
- Exit P/E multiple: 16.0x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a fair value of $209 per share, implying 4.1% total upside from the current share price of about $200, or roughly 1.6% per year over the next 2.5 years.
That limited upside reflects how much of the recovery narrative is already embedded in the stock. NAND pricing remains the most direct earnings lever, since even modest pricing gains can materially lift profitability given Western Digital’s operating leverage.
Data center demand also plays a key role, as higher enterprise and cloud SSD shipments improve both volumes and product mix.
Utilization rates and cost execution matter just as much, with better factory absorption and yield improvements supporting margin recovery even without aggressive revenue growth.
At current levels, further upside depends on pricing and mix improving faster than expectations rather than simply continuing to stabilize.
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