Key Stats for PulteGroup Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 11.0%
- 52-week Range: $88 to $142
- Valuation Model Target Price: $147
- Implied Upside: 11.1% over 2.0 years
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What Happened?
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) stock rose about 11% over the past week after President Donald Trump ordered $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases in an effort to push mortgage rates lower and make housing more affordable.
Housing affordability has stayed under pressure for months, with high mortgage rates and elevated home prices keeping many buyers on the sidelines and slowing activity across the housing market.
Investors rotated back into builders with strong margins and balance sheet flexibility, and PulteGroup has been viewed as one of the better-positioned names given its pricing discipline and capital returns.
Shares of other major homebuilders also moved higher during the week, marking a rapid reset in short-term positioning.
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Is PulteGroup Undervalued?
PulteGroup, Inc. is trading at a level that assumes homebuilding demand remains resilient and profitability holds up despite ongoing rate volatility. Under updated valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/27, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth: (1.6%)
- Operating margins: 15.3%
- Exit P/E multiple: 12.0x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $1467, implying an ~11.1% total return from the current share price of $132 and an annualized return of ~5.5% per year over the next 2.0 years.
PulteGroup’s results over the next 12 months are shaped by how well the company sustains order momentum without materially increasing incentives as mortgage rates fluctuate.
Order growth and cancellation rates act as the clearest signal of demand quality, revealing whether buyers are absorbing current pricing or pushing back.
Margin performance remains central, since build cost control, construction cycle times, and community mix directly determine how much earnings can be protected even if volumes flatten.
Land strategy also plays a key role, as disciplined lot optioning limits downside risk while preserving flexibility if demand stabilizes.
Strong free cash flow and continued share repurchases can further support per-share results, especially in an environment where revenue growth stays modest but capital discipline remains strong.
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