Key Takeaways
- Robinhood stock fell 22% in the past month, far more than the Nasdaq 100’s 6% drop and more than Coinbase’s 16% or SoFi’s 14%.
- A crypto sell-off, state limits on sports event contracts and a Wolfe Research downgrade all landed within a few weeks.
- Analysts kept raising their estimates, while the forward P/E fell to 33x from about 43x at the end of 2025.
- The consensus target sits 40% above Thursday’s close, and crypto and event-contract revenue in the Oct. 27 report are the numbers to watch.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) stock is down 22% in the past month (through Thursday’s close), against a 6% drop for the Nasdaq 100. Crypto exchange Coinbase Global (COIN) fell 16%, and fintech rival SoFi Technologies (SOFI) fell 14%.
So most of this slide is Robinhood’s own.
No single event did it. A handful of setbacks stacked up ahead of Robinhood’s third-quarter report, due after the close on Tuesday, Oct. 27…
Four hits in three weeks
- Crypto slumped. Bitcoin fell below $83,000 on Oct. 7 and took Coinbase and Robinhood down with it.
- States pushed back. On Oct. 2, Ohio ordered Robinhood to stop offering sports event contracts in the state by Oct. 16. Robinhood had already stopped offering new ones in Michigan on Sept. 9.
- Wolfe downgraded it. On Oct. 14, Wolfe Research cut the stock to Peer Perform from Outperform, saying the good news was already priced in. Wells Fargo trimmed its target to $120 from $125 that day, as hot core inflation and big-bank results hit financials.
- Tech sold off. The Nasdaq fell more than 2% on Thursday on AI-spending worries after Tesla’s and Meta’s results.
The business kept growing
None of that has shown up in the operating numbers.
TIKR tracks 31 analysts on Robinhood. How many say “Buy”?
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Robinhood’s crypto notional volume reached roughly $45 billion in the third quarter through Sept. 24, already above the second quarter’s $40 billion. At least 15.2 billion event contracts traded over the same stretch, past Q2’s record of 13.6 billion. Both lines swung hard in Q2. Crypto revenue fell 38% to $100 million, while event contracts revenue rose more than tenfold to $156 million.
And analysts keep raising their numbers. The 2027 revenue estimate has climbed to $6.88 billion from about $6.2 billion at the end of 2025…
Investors are paying less for rising earnings
So the drop came from the multiple. Robinhood’s forward P/E had been shrinking, from about 43x at the end of 2025 to 33x as of Thursday. Over that stretch, expected earnings for the next 12 months rose to $2.96 a share from about $2.64.
That’s less than half its 76x peak of October 2025. But it’s still above the roughly 28x of March 31.
Oct. 27 is the test
Four numbers to watch:
- Crypto revenue against Q2’s $100 million
- Event contracts revenue against Q2’s $156 million
- Net deposits, after BTIG called July and August underwhelming
- Total revenue against the roughly $1.43 billion consensus
The quarter includes only about three weeks of the Michigan pause, and Ohio’s deadline falls in the fourth quarter. So management’s comments on sports contracts matter as much as the results.
Cheap enough to load up
The consensus price target has crept up to about $135 during the slide…
That’s 40% above Thursday’s close, and Rosenblatt initiated coverage at Buy with a $135 target on Oct. 20.
The risk is more states shutting down sports contracts while crypto stays weak. A return to that March multiple of about 28x would put the stock in the low $80s.
My take: Robinhood is growing into a smaller multiple, and estimates keep rising. At 33x forward earnings, I’d lean toward loading up, in pieces. If crypto revenue lands under $100 million again on Oct. 27 and management sounds worried about sports contracts, the multiple can fall further.
So what is Robinhood stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
