Key Takeaways
- Intel stock fell 10% in the week through Thursday’s close, mostly in a chip selloff after Lam Research said supply chain constraints held back its outlook.
- TSMC’s offer to back customers short of Intel’s packaging capacity was Intel’s one worry of its own, and nothing last week cut Intel’s guidance or estimates.
- Intel trades at 51x forward earnings, right at its five-year average, and the $117 consensus target is 35% above Friday’s close.
- For investors who believe in the foundry turnaround, the drop looks like a chance to buy, and Intel’s Oct. 29 third-quarter report has to back it up.
Intel (INTC) stock fell 10% in the week through Thursday’s close, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 3%. Friday’s 1.7% bounce to $87 leaves it up 136% in 2026. So, time to lock in those gains… or buy more?
Lam’s warning hit the whole chip group
Most of the damage came Thursday, after Lam Research (LRCX) guided to $8.6 billion of December-quarter revenue at the midpoint. Its CFO, Doug Bettinger, said on the call that guidance “would have been a bit higher if not for some near-term supply chain constraints.”
That revived AI spending fears, and chip stocks sold off across the board. Intel had no news of its own.
But read Bettinger’s line again: Lam’s demand is outrunning its supply, and so is Intel’s. And on its second-quarter call, management said it would fall short of demand again in the fourth quarter
TSMC wants Intel’s packaging customers
Intel’s own worry came from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). On Oct. 15, CEO C.C. Wei said TSMC would back customers short of Intel’s EMIB-T packaging capacity.
Packaging is the first foundry business Intel expects to ramp. CFO David Zinsner sees revenue picking up in the second half of 2027, at a gross margin of around 40%. Intel hasn’t named a customer yet, and TSMC’s pitch could squeeze pricing. Nor has it said whether the fatal Oct. 14 blast at its Kiryat Gat plant in Israel cut production.
TIKR tracks 50 analysts on Intel. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Intel, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Intel’s Analyst Ratings
Is Intel a buy before Oct. 29?
None of this touched Intel’s guidance. Analysts still see normalized EPS climbing from $0.42 in 2025 to $3.09 by 2028…
Yet investors are paying less for them. Intel trades at 51x forward earnings, right at its five-year average and down from 63x on Oct. 8.
The $117 consensus target has barely budged and sits 35% above Friday’s close.
My take: if you believe in the foundry turnaround, last week’s drop lets you load up at Intel’s usual multiple.
But Intel’s Oct. 29 report has to back that up. Analysts expect about $16.4 billion of third-quarter revenue, against the $16.8 billion top of guidance. A fourth-quarter gross margin outlook of 42% or better (its third-quarter guide) and a named packaging customer would answer TSMC’s pitch.
So what is Intel stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Intel could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
