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Key Takeaways
- Meta reports third-quarter results after the bell today, with analysts expecting $63.3 billion of revenue and $41 billion of capital spending, according to Bloomberg’s consensus.
- Muse’s most natural customers are the small businesses already advertising on Facebook and Instagram, so Meta can make money from it through ads instead of subscriptions.
- Meta’s operating margin was 41.4% in 2025 while capital spending climbed to $69.7 billion, so the ad business can pay for Muse while it grows.
- Tonight’s numbers probably won’t show much Muse revenue, so watch what management says about putting Muse in front of advertisers.
Meta Platforms (META) reports earnings after the bell today, and the question hanging over the stock is whether Muse can start paying for Meta’s growing AI bill.
Interest in Muse isn’t the problem. It hit 10 million US downloads within 40 days of its Sept. 8 launch, according to Sensor Tower. Only 11 other apps have done that. (The most recent was Meta’s own Threads, in July 2023.)
But the best take I’ve heard on how Muse makes money came from a founder. On TBPN this week, Quinten Farmer, co-founder and CEO of Portola, the company behind the AI companion app Tolan, said “Muse is just gonna crush it with the however many millions of small business owners” on Facebook.
He has firsthand experience. Farmer co-owns a restaurant, and he said running promotions and talking to customers on Instagram through Muse “is great for our team.”
He’s less sure about the consumer side: “I don’t know that my mom wants to like talk to her muse all day every day.”
I think he’s right on both counts.
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Meta already has the customers
Muse doesn’t need a new business model, because small businesses already pay Meta to reach people. Meta’s revenue grew from $135 billion in 2023 to $201 billion in 2025, and analysts expect $307 billion by 2027.
For tonight’s quarter alone, Bloomberg’s consensus calls for $63.3 billion, up from $51.2 billion a year ago.
So Muse doesn’t have to win a subscription war with ChatGPT to matter. Picture a bakery trying to fill its holiday preorder list, a plumber who can’t answer Instagram messages from under a sink, or a gym owner pushing January sign-ups. Each of them could hand that work to Muse.
And this is pure speculation, since Meta hasn’t said how it will charge businesses for Muse. But the obvious place to charge is where Meta always has: the moment that bakery puts money behind its promotion.
That’s an easier sell than another monthly subscription, isn’t it?
The AI bill keeps climbing
Of course, none of this is cheap. Meta’s capital spending grew from $18.7 billion in 2021 to $69.7 billion in 2025, almost doubling in the last year alone.
And analysts expect $41 billion in the third quarter alone, up 117% from a year ago.
So far, though, the ad engine is covering it. Meta’s operating margin was 41.4% in 2025, close to 2024’s 42.2% and well above 2022’s 28.8%.
That’s why Meta can afford to work Muse into its ad tools on its own schedule. Unlike OpenAI, Meta doesn’t need the money.
The stock gave back its Muse bump fast
Investors haven’t been patient. Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, asked on The Compound and Friends this week, “did you notice that Meta lost the Muse bump very fast?” His explanation was churn: “The churn rate is not good.”
Sensor Tower’s latest figures are more upbeat. They put Muse at 2.5 million daily active users for the first time on Oct. 16, up 15% from the week before.
Still, tonight’s report may show very little Muse revenue. A quarter without Muse in the numbers could keep the stock stuck.
Watch what Meta says about businesses
I don’t expect Muse to move Meta’s revenue tonight. The more useful signal is whether management talks about Muse as a tool for the businesses already buying its ads.
My take: Farmer has found Muse’s real market. A consumer agent that millions of small businesses use to run their marketing is a product Meta already knows how to charge for, and that’s far more upside than the subscription debate suggests.
Of course, Muse is only six weeks old, and Meta hasn’t said how, or even whether, it will charge businesses for it.
So what is Meta stock actually worth?
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