Key Stats for Robinhood Stock
- Current Price: $114.11
- Target Price (Mid): ~$210
- Street Target: ~$133
- Potential Total Return: ~84%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
Bank of America analyst Craig Siegenthaler raised his price target on Robinhood Markets (HOOD) to $156 from $140 on October 5 and kept a Buy rating. The same third-quarter preview lifted Coinbase Global (COIN) to $203 and cut eToro Group (ETOR) to $39, according to TheFly, as reported by Stocktwits. Both stocks rose in morning trading, and Robinhood closed up 1.22% at $114.11. BofA’s target sits about 37% above that close and about 17% above the Street mean of around $133, within a Street range of $57 to $170.
On October 2, the Ohio Casino Control Commission sent cease-and-desist notices to Robinhood and nine other operators over sports event contracts. Robinhood’s investor relations materials date the third-quarter results to October 27, after the close.
See historical and forward estimates for Robinhood stock (It’s free!) >>>
Tenev’s Wedge Is the Contract States Are Fighting
At the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 9, Chairman and CEO Vlad Tenev called prediction markets “a very effective top-of-funnel driver,” adding: “Someone will come in, they’ll trade an event contract, then they’ll go and buy an equity or open up a retirement account.” He said activity began “mostly sports, like vast majority,” and called sports “an effective wedge.” Event contracts revenue rose more than tenfold to $156 million in Q2, per the second-quarter release.
The legal fight centers on Kalshi, the exchange behind many of Robinhood’s sports contracts, but Robinhood is a party too. On August 28, the Ninth Circuit denied Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood injunctions against Nevada, finding sports contracts likely are not swaps. Robinhood has petitioned the Supreme Court for review, and it paused new sports contracts in Michigan from September 9. Ohio’s October 2 notice renews an earlier one to Robinhood, cites a September 25 Sixth Circuit ruling against Kalshi, and sets an October 16 compliance deadline.
That makes Tenev’s other point more important. He said activity is showing “increasing product market fit with other categories like economics and crypto in particular,” and the Ninth Circuit rulings do not address non-sports event contracts.
The Funnel Still Needs a Number
Tenev did not quantify how many event-contract traders move into other products, saying only that it happens “at a significant percentage.” Company-wide, retirement assets under custody rose 82% to $34.5 billion in Q2, and the Gold Card crossed 1 million customers, but Tenev offered no breakdown of how those customers arrived. TIKR consensus for 2027 revenue has climbed from around $6.2 billion at the end of 2025 to around $6.8 billion.
See how Robinhood performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $114.11
- Target Price (Mid): ~$210
- Potential Total Return: ~84%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Robinhood stock (It’s free!) >>>
The TIKR model’s mid case, run on October 6, targets around $210 by December 31, 2030, about 84% above the October 5 close, or around 16% a year. BofA’s $156 and the Street mean are not tied to that 2030 date, so the figures are not directly comparable.
TIKR consensus has revenue rising from $4.47 billion in 2025 to around $9.9 billion in 2030, with only three analysts covering 2030. Over the same span, GAAP EPS goes from $2.05 to around $4.50, and EBITDA margins sit at 56.4% in 2025 and around 56% in 2030. Growth, not margin expansion, carries the path, so event contracts and Gold-linked products have to keep compounding after crypto revenue fell 38% in Q2.
The primary risk is that more states will restrict sports contracts before the Supreme Court decides whether to hear the cases. The upside is non-sports contracts, and the funnel absorbing that hit. The downside is that event contracts revenue is stalling while crypto stays weak.
Conclusion
October 27 is a partial test. Q3 includes only about three weeks of the Michigan pause, and Ohio’s October 16 deadline falls in Q4, so guidance matters as much as the quarter. Event contracts revenue at or above Q2’s $156 million, plus any split of non-sports volume or funnel conversion, would support BofA’s raise. Silence on both would leave the stock priced on contested sports demand.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
So what is Robinhood stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Robinhood could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Analyze Robinhood on TIKR Free →
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
