Key Stats for Amazon Stock
- Current Price: $251.40
- Target Price (Mid): ~$600
- Street Target: ~$331
- Potential Total Return: ~139%
- Annualized IRR: ~23% / year
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What Happened?
Amazon (AMZN) opened Prime Big Deal Days on October 6 with consumer confidence at its weakest since 2014. The Conference Board’s index fell to 81.9 in September, Reuters reported. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) slipped 0.47% in the week ended October 2, extending a run of weekly losses, per Stocktwits.
Amazon is the fund’s largest holding, so the sector’s mood and the stock are closely tied. The two-day sale is the first holiday test of whether survey fear reaches the checkout.
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Amazon’s Store Is Adding Groceries and Sub-$10 Items
Second-quarter results predate September’s confidence drop, and Prime Day moving into the quarter flattered them. Worldwide paid units grew 17%. Two growth areas are the kind of spending that tends to hold up when households tighten. CEO Andy Jassy said monthly active perishables customers grew over 50% since the start of the year, and Amazon Haul listed over 6 million U.S. items under $10 as of July 30.
CFO Brian Olsavsky added that Amazon’s prices were “on average, 14% less than other retailers, according to third-party research firm, Profitero.”
The calendar sets a trap for the third quarter. Olsavsky said that excluding Prime Day from both 2025 and 2026, third-quarter growth would be nearly 400 basis points higher. Guidance of $197 billion to $202 billion implies roughly 9% to 12% growth over the $180.2 billion reported a year earlier. TIKR consensus already sits near the top, at around $202 billion. A print that reads like a slowdown during a consumer scare is the near-term risk.
Anthropic Gains Flatter Amazon’s 20x P/E
Amazon trades at 20.22x trailing earnings, down from 32.62x at the end of 2025, a P/E ratio that looks like a bargain. Investment gains swell the trailing earnings behind it. Second-quarter GAAP net income of $62.6 billion included $53.4 billion of non-operating pre-tax income, “primarily from our investments in Anthropic,” according to Amazon’s release. GAAP EPS ran ahead of adjusted EPS by $3.80 in the second quarter ($5.75 vs. $1.95) and by $1.17 in the first ($2.78 vs. $1.61).
On normalized next-twelve-month (NTM) estimates, the stock trades at about 28x earnings, versus about 31x at the end of 2025. NTM EV/EBITDA has eased to about 12x from about 13x. On forward earnings, shares are cheaper than at the start of the year, by far less than the trailing multiple suggests.
Cash is the bigger drag. TIKR consensus expects free cash flow of around negative $34 billion in 2026 and around negative $6 billion in 2027, then a turn to around $41 billion in 2028. The Street mean target is around $331, with 42 Buys, 15 Outperforms, 2 Holds, 4 No Opinions, and no Sells.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $251.40
- Target Price (Mid): ~$600
- Potential Total Return: ~139%
- Annualized IRR: ~23% / year
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This is the mid case, the only case the model card reports at its 12/31/30 horizon, measured from the $251.40 close. TIKR consensus points the same way. Revenue rises from $716.9 billion in 2025 to around $1.38 trillion in 2030, roughly 14% a year, while normalized net margin widens from 10.8% to around 16%.
AWS earned $16.6 billion of the $27.5 billion in second-quarter operating income. That total included about $1.2 billion of benefits from tariff refunds and an energy-contract accounting gain. Advertising revenue of $19.8 billion, up 26%, adds scale. The primary risk is a consumer pullback during the cash-flow trough, and Olsavsky also flagged fuel-driven transportation costs.
- Upside: AWS growth absorbs retail softness.
- Downside: a weak holiday season and costlier delivery push the cash-flow turn past 2028, and the target slides well below ~$600.
Conclusion
Amazon had not announced its third-quarter report date as of October 6; data providers estimate it for October 29. Revenue at or above about $202 billion, with management again saying stores trends held after the Prime Day adjustment, would show shoppers stayed in. A print near the $197 billion low end, while AWS holds its pace, would put the miss on the consumer.
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So what is Amazon stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
