Key Stats for Rigetti Stock
- Current Price: $15.15
- Target Price (Mid): ~$37
- Street Target: ~$29
- Potential Total Return: ~147%
- Annualized IRR: ~24% / year
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What Happened?
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) expects to book an $8.4 million quantum computer sale to India’s C-DAC in the fourth quarter, but only after the customer signs off on installation and testing. That one order equals about 84% of the around $10 million analysts expect Rigetti to report for the quarter. Management also reaffirmed a fidelity target for its flagship machine on its August 6 call, detailed in Rigetti’s investor relations materials. Shares closed at $15.15 on October 5, down 31.6% from the end of 2025.
Acceptance Testing Stands Between Rigetti and Its Q4 Estimate
Consensus calls for around $3.7 million of revenue in the third quarter and around $10 million in the fourth, which would lift 2026 to around $23 million from $7.09 million in 2025. That fourth-quarter estimate is nearly double Rigetti’s largest quarter of the past five, the $5.14 million it reported for Q2 2026.
Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey Bertelsen described C-DAC as an order “which we still expect to recognize in the fourth quarter of this year following installation and performance acceptance testing.” He tied the second quarter’s jump in deferred revenue mainly to prepayments on the order. Recognition still waits on sign-off, though. Rigetti’s revenue missed consensus by 3.85%, 10.28%, and 19.71% in the last three quarters of 2025, then beat by 6.60% in Q1 2026 and by 0.18% in Q2.
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Fidelity Fixes Are Being Tested Off the Cloud Machine
Rigetti expects its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q to reach a median two-qubit gate fidelity (how accurately pairs of qubits interact) of about 99.5% later in 2026, up from roughly 99.1% as of August 6. CEO Subodh Kulkarni said “coherence time is the limiting factor for 2-qubit gate fidelity at this time,” with coherence at 25 to 30 microseconds.
Candidate fixes include tantalum capping developed with Fermilab, which improved coherence in fundamental experiments, and the design optimization behind the 36-qubit system’s 99.6%. Neither runs yet on the cloud system customers use. “So we are working on other 108-qubit systems independent of the one that is deployed in the cloud,” Kulkarni said, adding that Rigetti will update investors once it is ready to deploy a new system.
The work is lifting spending. Second-quarter capital expenditure on Fab-1 and dilution refrigeration reached $16.40 million against an estimate of around $5.7 million, and the cash flow statement shows $15.78 million used in operations. The $100 million Commerce Department agreement, signed September 8, will fund future cryogenic and fabrication work in exchange for a minority equity stake.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $15.15
- Target Price (Mid): ~$37
- Potential Total Return: ~147%
- Annualized IRR: ~24% / year
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The TIKR model’s mid case points to around $37 per share by December 31, 2030, about 147% above $15.15, or around 24% a year. Getting there takes repeat system sales like C-DAC. Kulkarni said first-half sales growth came primarily from commercial organizations buying on-premises systems, though he added that those buyers understand they are research systems. Consensus expects gross margin to widen from around 39% in 2026 to around 55% in 2030, though only three analysts publish 2030 revenue estimates.
The primary risk is price. Rigetti trades at 161 times NTM enterprise value to revenue, against 22 times for IonQ (IONQ). The Street mean target of $28.53 sits below the model’s mid case, down from $38.24 at the end of 2025. On-time deliveries drive the upside, while each slip pushes the revenue path and the target further out.
Conclusion
Rigetti’s third-quarter report, expected in November but not yet scheduled, is the checkpoint. A reaffirmed fourth-quarter timeline for C-DAC keeps the around $10 million estimate within reach, and a reported 99.5% median fidelity would put the roadmap on schedule. If either slips to 2027, investors are paying 161 times forward revenue on an enterprise value basis for another year of waiting.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
