Rigetti Has $541 Million in Cash and a $100 Million Government Deal, So Why Is the Stock Down 25% This Year?

Key Stats for Rigetti Stock

• 52-Week Range: $13 to $58
• Market Cap: around $5.6 billion
• Street Mean Target: around $29
• Forward 2-Year Revenue Growth (CAGR): around 149%
• LTM Gross Margin: 34.6%
• NTM EV/Revenue: around 179x
• LTM EV/Revenue: around 388x
• Cash and Investments: $541.3 million (as of June 30)

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Why Rigetti Trades 71% Below Its High

Rigetti (RGTI) reported second-quarter revenue of $5.1 million on August 6, up 184% from $1.8 million a year earlier, with a gross margin of 42.6%. The quarter alone equals about 72% of the company’s revenue for all of 2025. The company still lost $28.1 million from operations and $52.6 million on a GAAP basis, but it ended June with $541.3 million in cash and investments and no debt, which is about 19 times its quarterly operating loss.

On the technology side, its 108-qubit Cepheus system shows median two-qubit gate fidelity of about 99.1%, and management is targeting a system of roughly 1,000 qubits at around 99.9% fidelity within about three years. Management said it is now delivering Novera-based systems and a 108-qubit system for C-DAC in India.

The U.S. government has also become a backer: on September 8 the Commerce Department signed a $100 million CHIPS Act agreement for three research projects, and it will take a minority, non-controlling equity stake in return.

Government entities already made up nearly 90% of 2025 revenue, according to the company’s annual report.

The shares still trade 71% below their 52-week high and are down about 25% this year. Recent gains have followed the sector: when IonQ said on September 23 that it will install a quantum processor at NVIDIA’s research center, IonQ rose about 11% and Rigetti gained around 4%.

The chart below shows how fast analysts expect revenue to grow from here.

[IMAGE 1: RGTI Revenue with Estimates]

Revenue fell from $13.1 million in 2022 to $7.1 million in 2025, and estimates call for around $23 million this year, around $44 million in 2027 and around $221 million by 2030, roughly 31 times the 2025 level. Even if that 2030 estimate is met, Rigetti’s enterprise value of around $5.2 billion would still be about 23 times that year’s revenue.

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Should You Buy RGTI Stock?

The bull case is that Rigetti has years of funding, with $541 million in cash, no debt and $100 million of government support, along with working 108-qubit hardware and analysts who expect revenue to multiply.

Second-quarter revenue grew 184% at a 42.6% gross margin, and the roadmap points to a system of roughly 1,000 qubits within about three years, about nine times the size of today’s 108-qubit machine.

The bear case is that revenue is still tiny and has fallen since 2022, losses are large, and nearly all sales come from government customers, while an enterprise value near 400 times trailing revenue leaves little room if the roadmap slips.

Analysts have also cut their mean target about 25% since the end of last year, and even hitting the 2030 revenue estimate would leave the enterprise value at about 23 times that year’s sales. Rivals such as IonQ are also landing high-profile partnerships.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!