Key Stats for GE Vernova Stock
- Current Price: $957.63
- Target Price (Mid): ~$3,520
- Street Target: ~$1,237
- Potential Total Return: ~268%
- Annualized IRR: ~36% / year
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What Happened?
On September 14, GLJ Research started coverage of GE Vernova (GEV) at Sell with a Street-low $470 target, calling the company a cyclical gas turbine maker priced like a compounder. Two days later, at Morgan Stanley’s Laguna conference, CEO and President Scott Strazik said GE Vernova is already selling 2032 delivery slots, in remarks posted with its investor relations materials. He did not address the note directly. Shares closed at $957.63 on September 25, roughly double GLJ’s target.
GLJ Puts the Cycle Risk in 2030 and 2031
The note landed as calls from AI lab CEOs to slow development hit AI-linked stocks, according to Reuters. According to Zhitong Finance, power infrastructure stocks fell broadly that day, with GE Vernova leading.
Zhitong’s summary of the note says analyst Gordon Johnson expects high-premium orders to materialize only in 2029. He argues that all orders placed in 2026 and 2027 will ship in 2030 and 2031, when his supply model shows 104 to 113 gigawatts of effective industry capacity against orders of only 88 to 90 gigawatts. TIKR’s Street data, with 33 price targets, a $940 low, and no Sell ratings as of September 25, does not include the call.
In Q2 2026, GAAP EPS of $2.47 missed the $3.18 estimate, even as adjusted EBITDA of $1,250 million landed near the roughly $1,276 million estimate. Shares fell more than 6% on July 22, the day of the report. Wind lost $275 million at the segment EBITDA line, though Strazik expects its profitability to be “much better” in the second half. Consensus also has free cash flow falling from about $12 billion in 2026, after a Q2 lifted by working capital, to around $7.4 billion in 2027.
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2032 Slots Are Selling With Cash Committed
The 12 gigawatts of 2030 to 2031 supply added this summer met a strong response at premium pricing and is all “in some form of contracting,” though Strazik expects most of it to contract in the fourth quarter. Multiple 2032 slots have sold with cash committed, but only in “single-digit gigawatts.”
Asked whether to push harder on aeroderivative capacity, he said “we don’t determine the aggressiveness with which we play. Our customers do based on the cash that they provide to us.” Even so, GE Vernova’s own push toward 30 gigawatts of annual output in 2030 adds supply in that same window.
The $100 Billion Services Tail
The installed base is where the cyclical label fits least. GE Vernova has 130 HA heavy-duty turbines running and 195 more on contract, and expects at least 400 running or on contract by the end of 2027, about 200 gigawatts. Strazik said each gigawatt generates about $0.5 billion of high-margin services revenue over its first 20 years: “By the end of next year, we’ll have contracted $100 billion of future services revenue.”
That is a management projection, and it builds slowly, with the first outages about four years after shipment. By Strazik’s figures, HA services bring in about $1 billion of Power’s roughly $24 billion in revenue. The company’s buybacks totaled 4.3 million shares through June 30 at an average of $854, and Strazik said the third quarter gave it “another good opportunity” to keep buying.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $957.63
- Target Price (Mid): ~$3,520
- Potential Total Return: ~268%
- Annualized IRR: ~36% / year
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The mid case is used because its December 31, 2030, horizon lands inside GLJ’s risk window. Street estimates on TIKR, separate from the model’s own inputs, have revenue roughly doubling from $38.07 billion in 2025 to about $78 billion in 2030, around 15% a year, with EBITDA margin rising from 8.4% to around 26%.
At around $3,520, the mid case sits nearly three times the Street’s mean target, a gap that closes only if late-decade pricing and margins hold. Upside comes if factory output reaches the 7 gigawatts a quarter, Strazik outlined, and orders keep pace. Downside is GLJ’s $470, about 51% below the September 25 close. The output is a scenario.
Conclusion
Q3 results arrive on October 28. Strazik expects “a very strong third quarter orders performance” and called July’s 20-gigawatt second-half commitment outlook likely conservative, while cautioning that the half will fall short of the first half’s 40 gigawatts. Q3 EBITDA near the roughly $1.7 billion consensus, plus 2030 to 2031 capacity converting into contracts by year-end, keeps his timeline intact. A second straight GAAP EPS miss or stalled conversions hands GLJ its argument.
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Should You Invest in GE Vernova?
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Pull up GE Vernova, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
