Key Takeaways for ResMed Stock as of June 2026
- Analysts rate ResMed stock 9 Buys, 1 Outperform, 8 Holds, and 1 Sell with a street mean target of $261, implying around 33% upside from the current price of $197.
- TIKR’s mid-case model values ResMed at around $276 by June 2030, implying around 41% total return from current levels, or roughly 9% annualized.
- ResMed stock trades around 33% below its 52-week high of $294 despite delivering 11% revenue growth, 290 basis points of gross margin expansion, and 21% non-GAAP EPS growth in its most recent quarter, pointing to a market mispricing.
- The catalyst the Street watches most closely: whether real-world data showing GLP-1 co-prescriptions drive higher PAP adherence translates into sustained devices and masks revenue acceleration through fiscal 2027.
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ResMed Stock Drops 33% From Its High Despite 21% EPS Growth and New GLP-1 Data That Changed the Narrative
ResMed (RMD), the California-headquartered maker of CPAP devices and connected sleep health software, posted fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $1.43 billion, up 11% year over year, while non-GAAP diluted EPS grew 21% to $2.86, both beating analyst consensus, yet the stock sits around 33% below its 52-week high of $294.
Non-GAAP gross margin widened 290 basis points year over year to 62.8%, the product of sustained supply chain optimization that management described as a multi-year initiative, with further sequential improvement of 50 basis points built in.
CEO Mick Farrell disclosed a dataset that directly challenges the market’s central concern about GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on Q3 earnings call: “Our findings were that PAP patients who subsequently start GLP-1 therapy show higher PAP adherence rates than patients on PAP alone. Specifically, the 2-year resupply rates are 5.1% higher and the 3-year resupply rates are 6.2% higher.”
That analysis covered 1.7 million de-identified patient records and tracked mask and accessory resupply as the outcome metric, not self-reported adherence.
A separate cohort of 2.1 million patients with both PAP and GLP-1 prescriptions showed approximately 11% higher likelihood of initiating PAP therapy compared to patients with a PAP-only script, and more than 6% higher probability of a resupply event at the three-year mark.
ResMed also announced the $340 million acquisition of Noctrix Health, maker of a non-invasive, drug-free wearable therapy for restless legs syndrome, a market Farrell sized at 17 million addressable patients in the U.S. and described as growing faster and carrying higher gross margins than ResMed’s existing business.
The company closed the Noctrix deal on June 1 and raised its annual dividend 13% to $2.40 per share, while guiding at least $200 million in share repurchases for Q4 and confirming north of $800 million in annual buybacks for fiscal 2027 at the William Blair Growth Stock Conference.
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Analysts Hold Their RMD Buy Ratings at a 33% Discount, With EPS Growth the Justification
Wall Street expects ResMed stock to deliver around $2.87 in normalized EPS in the June 2026 quarter, building to around $3.12 by June 2027, and 9 of 19 analysts rate it a Buy or Outperform against a current price of $197.
That quarterly trajectory runs from $2.55 a year ago through $2.86 in the most recent March 2026 print, with estimates pushing toward around $3.05 by December 2026 and around $3.12 by June 2027, each step reflecting the operational leverage management has committed to sustaining through 2030.
The street mean price target of $261 sits around 33% above the current price of $197, and the target stock price relative to close has expanded to 132.6% as of June 24, reflecting a widening gap between analyst conviction and market pricing.
The Hold camp’s argument centers on whether GLP-1 drug-only approvals for OSA, including Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, divert new patients away from CPAP initiation at volumes the company’s 2.1 million patient dataset cannot yet fully capture at scale.
The Street’s open question centers on whether fiscal 2027 masks and accessories growth holds at double-digit rates as the GLP-1 patient cohort grows larger, or whether device mix shifts reduce the revenue per new patient that the current estimate build assumes.
ResMed Leads BSX and MDT on EPS by a Margin That Keeps Widening
ResMed stock’s normalized EPS of $2.86 in the March 2026 quarter runs 3.6x ahead of Boston Scientific’s (BSX) $0.79 and nearly 1.9 times ahead of Medtronic’s (MDT) $1.54, a gap that has widened consistently across the prior three quarters.
Estimates through June 2027 show RMD reaching $3.12, BSX reaching $0.92, and MDT reaching $1.44, meaning the earnings gap widens further rather than compresses.
Is ResMed Stock Undervalued in 2026? TIKR’s $276 Model Points to 41% Upside
TIKR’s mid-case model values ResMed at around $276 by June 2030, implying around 41% total return from the current price of $197, or roughly 9% annualized over four years.
The 41% return path rests on the demand engine management quantified on the Q3 call: 2.1 million patients with both GLP-1 and PAP prescriptions initiating therapy at approximately 11% higher rates and sustaining resupply at more than 6% higher rates over three years.
The $340 million Noctrix acquisition adds a growth vector through the same DME channel and sleep physician prescriber base, targeting 17 million U.S. patients with restless legs syndrome, and north of $800 million in planned annual buybacks compounds whatever growth ResMed delivers between now and 2030.
TIKR’s $276 mid-case model for ResMed is live. Build your own valuation on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in ResMed Inc.?
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