Key Takeaways:
- Planet Fitness is executing a comprehensive member experience transformation through enhanced marketing, format optimization, and strategic price increases.
- PLNT could reasonably reach $170/share by December 2029, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 55% from today’s price of $110/share, with an annualized return of 11% over the next 4.1 years.
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)>>>
Planet Fitness (PLNT) is establishing new benchmarks in the high-value, low-price fitness segment through strategic brand evolution, addressing AI-powered marketing, format-optimized clubs, and Black Card spa enhancements across franchisee, corporate, and international markets.
Planet Fitness serves fitness consumers globally through its judgment-free zone philosophy, which spans 2,800+ clubs, emerging strength equipment offerings, and recovery amenities, all delivered with industry-leading value and accessibility.
Core offerings include $15 Classic Card memberships, $25 Black Card memberships with enhanced spa amenities, 24/7 club access, and optimized club formats featuring expanded strength equipment, turf areas, and functional training spaces.
The fitness leader delivered third-quarter 2025 revenue of $330 million, a 13% year-over-year increase, with system-wide same-club sales growth of 6.9%, indicating continued momentum despite elevated attrition from click-to-cancel implementation.
Planet Fitness demonstrates strong execution across strategic initiatives under the leadership of CEO Colleen Keating and the senior management team.
The company grew its membership base to 20.7 million members while achieving 66.1% Black Card penetration, up 300 basis points year-over-year, and completed its record-breaking High School Summer Pass program with 3.7 million teen participants, up 30% from last year.
PLNT stock went public in 2015 and has delivered returns of over 600% to shareholders since the IPO. Here’s why Planet Fitness stock could provide strong returns through 2029 as it capitalizes on Gen Z fitness trends while scaling its optimized format across diverse geographies.
See analysts’ full growth forecasts and estimates for Planet Fitness stock (It’s free) >>>
What the Model Says for Planet Fitness Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Planet Fitness stock using valuation assumptions based on its franchisee value proposition and market expansion opportunities across club development and membership growth strategies.
Analysts recognize an opportunity ahead for Planet Fitness stock given its proven execution track record, brand strength, and systematic approach to building competitive advantages while maintaining exceptional unit economics in the expanding fitness market.
Planet Fitness’s diversified growth strategy provides multiple vectors, while the format optimization initiative validates that comprehensive club enhancements can drive membership growth and franchisee returns in the evolving wellness landscape.
Based on estimates of 10% annual revenue growth, 31% operating margins, and a normalized P/E valuation multiple of 30x, the model projects Planet Fitness stock could rise from $110/share to $136/share.
That would be a 24% total return, or an 11% annualized return over the next 2.1 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
Estimate a company’s fair value instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for PLNT stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 10%
Planet Fitness delivered a strong third quarter 2025 performance, with 13% revenue growth driven by momentum across all three business segments, including 11% franchise revenue growth and 27.8% equipment segment growth.
The company’s system-wide same-club sales increased 6.9%, with approximately 80% driven by rate increases and 25% by net membership growth.
This followed the June 2024 Classic Card price increase from $10 to $15 and the announced Black Card price increase to $29.99 after peak season in 2026.
Growth drivers include expanding younger demographics, with Gen Z representing the fastest-growing membership segment.
Management expects to open 160-170 new clubs in 2025, including both domestic franchises and international locations. The company surpassed 2,800 clubs globally and 1 million global members across Spain, Mexico, and Australia markets.
We used a 10% forecast, reflecting Planet Fitness’s ability to capture wellness demand through membership growth and strategic pricing while expanding unit count 6-7% annually, balanced against the company’s maturing domestic footprint and near-term attrition normalization.
2. Operating margins: 31%
In the third quarter of 2025, Planet Fitness achieved adjusted EBITDA margins of 42.6%, up from 42.1% year-over-year, demonstrating strong operational leverage across the capital-light franchise model.
The company reported adjusted SG&A of $30 million, representing 9.1% of revenue, compared to 10.7% in the prior year, a 160-basis-point improvement driven by cost discipline and operating leverage.
Management emphasized that 90% of clubs are franchised, enabling a capital-light model with minimal corporate investment while generating strong cash flows. The franchise-driven structure creates natural operating leverage as system-wide sales grow.
PLNT targets sustainable margin improvement through several initiatives:
- Franchisee contributions from the 1% marketing fund shift (moving $45 million to national advertising).
- AI-enabled CRM and dynamic content optimization reduce marketing costs, procurement savings on build-out materials like flooring and lighting.
- Equipment segment growth from format-optimized remodels and new club placements.
The company is investing strategically in member experience enhancements, including Black Card spa modernization with recovery amenities such as a dry cold plunge and red light therapy, expanded placement of strength equipment to reach 80% of system clubs by year-end, and AI-powered personalization through app improvements and targeted marketing.
We forecast 31% operating margins (approximately 69% EBITDA margins for the corporate business), reflecting management’s proven ability to leverage the franchise model, drive equipment revenue growth through format optimization, and benefit from the restructuring of the national advertising fund.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 30x
Planet Fitness stock currently trades at a next-twelve-months P/E multiple of 32.5x, reflecting its premium positioning, franchise model resilience, and proven ability to generate consistent growth through economic cycles.
Historical P/E multiples show premium valuations: 33.9x over the past year, 41.5x over the last five years, and an average of 39.5x over the last decade, demonstrating sustained investor confidence.
We maintain a 30x exit multiple given Planet Fitness’s execution capabilities, secular tailwinds from wellness trends, and systematic approach to building sustainable competitive advantages through brand strength and franchisee economics.
The company’s 16th consecutive year as the #1 national LTL provider in the Mastio survey (finishing first in 23 of 28 service categories) demonstrates durable brand equity, while 99% on-time performance validates operational excellence that supports premium valuations.
Management’s disciplined capital allocation includes strategic share repurchases totaling $100 million in Q3 2025 and raised full-year guidance across revenue, EBITDA, and EPS metrics, reinforcing shareholder value creation momentum.
Black Card penetration reached 66.1%, up 300 basis points year-over-year, with the smallest price gap between membership tiers since launch. The announced $29.99 Black Card pricing (from $24.99) positions the company to capture additional revenue while maintaining the value proposition that resonates with price-conscious consumers.
Long-term competitive advantages from judgment-free positioning, format innovation, and franchisee alignment should support reasonable valuations as the company capitalizes on Gen Z fitness adoption and scales international expansion into 1-2 new, markets annually.
Build your own Valuation Model to value any stock (It’s free!) >>>
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for PLNT stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on membership growth execution and competitive dynamics (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Click-to-cancel attrition persists and real estate challenges return → 6% annual returns
- Mid Case: Successful format optimization and steady international expansion → 11% annual returns
- High Case: Strong Gen Z adoption and accelerated Black Card upgrades → 17% annual returns
Even in the conservative case, Planet Fitness stock offers positive returns, supported by its brand positioning and proven ability to maintain franchisee economics, while competitors struggle with higher-cost models and limited scale advantages.
The upside scenario for PLNT stock could deliver exceptional performance if the company successfully captures younger demographics during the “golden age of fitness” while maximizing Black Card penetration through spa enhancements and achieving targeted international growth across multiple new markets.
See what analysts think about PLNT stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does PLNT Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
