Key Takeaways:
- The Trade Desk is dominating programmatic advertising through its Kokai platform, CTV leadership, and strategic innovations in supply chain transparency.
- TTD stock could potentially reach $60 by December 2029, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This represents a total return of 43% from today’s price of $42, with an annualized return of 9% over the next 4.1 years.
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The Trade Desk (TTD), the independent demand-side platform leader, is capturing a massive share in programmatic advertising.
The company is launching game-changing products, such as the AI-powered Kokai, which is delivering results that competitors can’t match.
TTD operates the world’s most objective DSP platform. and processes 20 million ad impression opportunities every second. That’s more transactions than Visa, Mastercard, and American Express combined do in a year.
CTV remains the largest and fastest-growing channel, while retail media is scaling rapidly, and international markets are growing at a faster rate than North America.
Core innovations are delivering measurable impact. For instance:
- Kokai campaigns show 26% better cost per acquisition versus the previous Solimar platform.
- Click-through rates improved 94%.
- Cost per unique reach dropped 58%.
- OpenPath integrations grew by hundreds of percentage points in 2025.
- Deal Desk is replacing outdated upfront models with AI-powered deal predictions.
The ad tech leader delivered third-quarter 2025 revenue of $739 million, an increase of 18% year over year. Its adjusted EBITDA reached $317 million, representing a margin of 43%, while free cash flow totaled $155 million.
TTD stock went public in 2016 and has since returned over 1,200% to shareholders. However, it also trades 70% below all-time highs, allowing you to buy the dip. Let’s see if you should own TTD stock at the current multiple.
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What the Model Says for TTD Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Trade Desk stock, using valuation assumptions based on sustained revenue growth and margin expansion, driven by its dominant position in programmatic advertising for the open internet.
Analysts recognize a significant opportunity ahead for TTD stock. Revenue grew 26% over the past year, while operating margins are expanding as the platform scales.
Kokai adoption reached 85% of clients using it as their default experience, and the customer division already met its 2027 targets in 2025.
Based on estimates of 17% annual revenue growth, 24% net income margins, and a 24x P/E valuation multiple, the model projects TTD stock could rise from $42 to $52.
That would be a 24% total return, or an 11% annualized return over the next 2.1 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for TTD stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 17%
The Trade Desk delivered a solid third-quarter performance. Revenue grew 22% excluding political spend, while the CTV segment is growing faster than the overall business. International markets are accelerating, and the company is capturing more wallet share from major global brands.
We used a 17% revenue growth forecast, which reflects Trade Desk’s ability to capture share in the $1 trillion advertising TAM.
2. Operating margins: 24%
In the third quarter of 2025, Trade Desk’s adjusted EBITDA margin hit 43%. The company converted $317 million in EBITDA from $739 million in revenue, while operating leverage is driving profitability expansion.
Kokai adoption reduces operational complexity, and AI automation drives productivity improvements. Operating discipline under new leadership is streamlining execution, while international growth carries similar margin profiles as it scales.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 24x
Trade Desk trades at premium multiples reflecting its dominant market position. The company leads the independent DSP market share, with growth rates consistently exceeding those of its competitors.
TTD stock shows a visible commitment to returning cash through buybacks, given it has repurchased nearly $2 billion since 2023.
The Trade Desk is forecast to expand adjusted earnings by 16% annually through 2029, which suggests a forward earnings forecast of 24 times is reasonable.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for TTD stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on CTV adoption rates and AI innovation: (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Slower CTV adoption and margin pressure lead to 2% annual returns.
- Mid Case: Steady execution and continued share gains produce 9% annual returns.
- High Case: Accelerated open internet shift and margin expansion drive 16% annual returns.
Even in the conservative case, Trade Desk stock offers marginal growth supported by structural tailwinds. Programmatic advertising continues to expand globally, and CTV is still in its early stages of adoption.
The upside scenario for TTD stock could deliver strong performance if CTV could become the default buying model faster than expected.
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How Much Upside Does TTD Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
