Key Stats for Cidara Therapeutics Stock
- Price Change for Cidara stock: 105%
- $CDTX Share Price as of Nov. 14: $218
- 52-Week High: $219
- $CDTX Stock Price Target: $161
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What Happened?
Cidara (CDTX) stock exploded over 100% on Friday after Merck agreed to acquire the biotech company for $9.2 billion in an all-cash transaction.
The pharmaceutical giant is paying $221.50 per share, representing a roughly 110% premium to Cidara’s closing price on Thursday.
The acquisition centers on CD388, Cidara’s late-stage long-acting antiviral designed to prevent influenza in high-risk populations.
Unlike flu vaccines, CD388 works as a universal influenza preventative that requires just one subcutaneous injection at the beginning of flu season to provide protection throughout the entire season against all strains of influenza A and B.
“We continue to execute our science-led business development strategy, augmenting our pipeline with CD388, a potentially first-in-class, long-acting antiviral designed to prevent influenza in individuals at higher risk of complications,” said Robert M. Davis, Merck’s chairman and CEO. “We are confident that CD388 has the potential to be another important driver of growth through the next decade.”
The deal comes as Merck works to offset the upcoming patent expiration of Keytruda, its blockbuster cancer drug, which generated $8.14 billion in third-quarter sales—nearly half of the company’s total revenue.
CD388 represents a strategic addition to Merck’s growing infectious diseases portfolio.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About CDTX Stock
The massive surge in Cidara stock reflects the substantial premium Merck will pay and the market’s confidence in CD388’s commercial potential.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Brian Abrahams called the deal “nothing to sneeze at” and noted he had estimated a $3.8 billion opportunity for the flu prevention program.
In the Phase 2b NAVIGATE study last year, the drug achieved a p-value of less than 0.0001 compared to placebo, with an efficacy rate of 76.1%—unprecedented results for flu prevention.
The study enrolled 5,000 healthy, unvaccinated adults aged 18-64 and tested three doses of CD388 versus a placebo during a historically severe flu season.
Those compelling results earned CD388 Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the FDA, which was also accompanied by Fast Track Designation.
The FDA not only agreed with Cidara’s Phase 3 program but also recommended expanding it to include additional high-risk populations beyond the originally planned immunocompromised cohort.
The ongoing Phase 3 ANCHOR study is testing a 450mg dose of CD388 versus placebo in 6,000 participants across three high-risk groups: patients with moderate to severe comorbidities (about 40% of enrollment), immunocompromised individuals (roughly 10%), and people over 65 years old with either good health or mild comorbidities (approximately 50%).
Cidara had expected to complete enrollment by the end of this month and planned an interim analysis by the end of March 2026.
The study is 90% powered to detect a 60% efficacy rate, assuming a 1.5% attack rate in the placebo arm.
The Phase 3 design allows up to 65% of participants to be vaccinated, testing CD388 in a real-world setting.
Preclinical evidence and prior studies with neuraminidase inhibitors suggest that CD388 could provide additive protection on top of vaccines, potentially achieving a total protection rate of up to 90% when combined.
From a commercial standpoint, Cidara had identified over 100 million eligible patients in the U.S. alone, including 50 million with moderate to severe comorbidities or immunocompromised status.
The company had secured a $58 million BARDA contract to onshore manufacturing and establish a parallel domestic supply chain alongside its existing Wuxi-based production.
Abrahams noted that Merck makes strategic sense as an acquirer, given its expertise in infectious diseases, although he suggested that the bidding process could have been more competitive.
“We could see additional companies for which CDTX could be an attractive strategic fit (noting Sanofi has a flu vaccine franchise and Johnson & Johnson had previously been involved in ‘388’s),” he wrote.
For Cidara stockholders, the $221.50 per share cash offer represents the culmination of an 11-year journey that began with the company’s Cloudbreak platform and Drug-Fc conjugate technology invented in 2018.
After partnering with Johnson & Johnson in 2021 and successfully reacquiring the asset in 2024 for $240 million, when J&J exited the infectious diseases business, Cidara now exits at a $9.2 billion valuation.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
