HF Sinclair Stock Prediction: Where Analysts See the Stock Going by 2027

Nikko Henson • 5 minute read

Last updated Nov 23, 2025

HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE: DINO) trades around $53/share after a solid rebound through 2025. Revenue trends have softened and margins remain uneven, but the company’s refining footprint and strong cash generation continue to support stable performance. Despite this, long term expectations point to slow growth and limited upside.

Recently, HF Sinclair made progress on its renewable diesel strategy, reporting higher production volumes and improving profitability at its Wyoming and New Mexico facilities. Management also highlighted stronger utilization across its refinery network, signaling that operations may be healthier than the stock’s conservative valuation suggests. These developments show that HF Sinclair still has levers to support earnings even in a cooler macro environment.

This article explores where Wall Street analysts expect HF Sinclair to trade by 2027. We compiled consensus price targets and valuation model results to map the stock’s potential path. These figures reflect analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.

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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Modest Upside

HF Sinclair trades near $53/share, and the Street’s average target of $60/share points to modest upside. At roughly 14% upside, analysts expect a gradual move higher supported by more stable operating performance.

Street targets:

High estimate: $66/share
Low estimate: $51/share
Median target: $60/share
Ratings: 6 Buys, 2 Outperforms, 7 Holds, 1 Sell

Analysts see a bit more room for gains than in prior periods, although the spread across estimates remains relatively contained. For investors, this suggests HF Sinclair could outperform if refining conditions remain steady and renewable diesel margins continue improving.

HF Sinclair stock — HF Sinclair Analyst Price Target

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DINO Growth Outlook and Valuation

The company’s fundamentals appear steady, but growth expectations remain soft:

Revenue is projected to decline 1% through 2027
Operating margins are expected to remain near 4%
Shares trade at about 10x forward earnings
Based on analysts average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 10x forward P E suggests $58/share by 2027
That implies roughly 9% upside, or about 4% annualized returns

These numbers suggest HF Sinclair can compound steadily, but not at a pace that would drive strong upside. The stock’s appeal comes from operational consistency rather than meaningful growth, which means returns are likely capped unless margins improve more than expected.

For investors, HF Sinclair looks more like a dependable operator than a growth story. Stability is the core attraction, with earnings expected to move gradually rather than aggressively.

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What’s Driving the Optimism?

HF Sinclair’s improving renewable diesel output continues to support sentiment. Higher volumes and more consistent profitability from its converted facilities help offset slower refining conditions. The company’s focus on refinery reliability and planned maintenance discipline also contributes to a steadier margin base.

Management has emphasized targeted capital allocation and financial flexibility, choosing projects that strengthen long term earnings stability. These strategic improvements give investors confidence that HF Sinclair can manage volatility within the sector.

Bear Case: Cyclical Margins and Limited Growth

Despite the positive developments, HF Sinclair remains exposed to a highly cyclical refining environment. Revenue is expected to contract slightly through 2027, and modest margins give the company little buffer if market conditions weaken. Without diversification into higher growth segments, HF Sinclair’s results will continue to move with fuel spreads and demand cycles.

The competitive landscape in fuels distribution remains intense, and regional differences in supply and demand can shift quickly. For investors, the primary risk is that even slight margin compression could erase the already modest upside implied by current forecasts.

Outlook for 2027: What Could HF Sinclair Be Worth?

Based on analysts average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model suggests HF Sinclair could trade near $58/share by 12/31/27, which represents about 9% total upside, or roughly 4% annualized returns.

This outlook assumes a stable margin environment and consistent operating execution. To unlock stronger upside, HF Sinclair would need firmer refining spreads, better renewable diesel profitability, or meaningful cost improvements. Without those catalysts, returns are likely to remain steady but limited.

For investors, HF Sinclair looks like a reliable, slow compounding operator that may appeal to value oriented portfolios. The upside is modest, but the company’s consistency and improving renewable fuels strategy offer a foundation for gradual long term returns.

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