Key Stats for MP Materials Stock
- YTD Price Change for MP Materials stock: 187%
- $MP Share Price as of Nov. 19: $63.55
- 52-Week High: $100
- $MP Stock Price Target: $81
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What Happened?
MP Materials (MP) stock surged on Wednesday following the announcement of a strategic joint venture with the U.S. Department of War and Saudi Arabia’s state-owned mining company, Maaden, to develop a rare earth refinery in the Kingdom.
The shares closed up 8.6% at $63.55, capping off a remarkable year that has seen the stock triple in value.
Under the agreement, MP Materials and the Pentagon will hold a combined 49% stake in the joint venture, while Maaden will control at least 51%.
The Defense Department is providing full non-recourse financing for the U.S. portion of the venture, while MP contributes its technical expertise in rare earth separation and refining.
The facility will process rare earth feedstock from Saudi Arabia and other global sources to produce separated light and heavy rare earth oxides for the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and allied nations’ manufacturing and defense sectors.
This deal represents another major milestone in MP Materials’ transformation from a simple mining operation into America’s fully integrated rare earth supply chain.
The company is also in discussions to support magnet manufacturing in Saudi Arabia, which would further extend its downstream capabilities.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About MP Stock
The explosive performance of MP stock this year reflects a fundamental shift in how investors view rare earth supply chains and national security.
When China imposed strict export controls on rare-earth magnets in April, major U.S. manufacturers had to shut down production lines because they couldn’t secure magnets for something as simple as a speaker.
That wake-up call led to the landmark Pentagon deal with MP Materials in July, which included a $400 million equity investment, a $ 110-per-kilogram price floor for neodymium-praseodymium oxide, and guaranteed offtake agreements for the company’s planned magnet production.
The Saudi joint venture announcement adds another dimension to MP’s growth story. CEO James Litinsky described the agreement as demonstrating “how our fully integrated platform can project U.S. industrial capability abroad.”
By leveraging Saudi Arabia’s competitive energy costs, world-class infrastructure, and untapped rare-earth resources, the joint venture can help rebalance the global supply chain, which China currently dominates.
China controls roughly 90% of global rare-earth refining, 90% of metal production, and 90% of magnet manufacturing.
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of MP stock on Tuesday with a $77 price target, implying about 32% upside from current levels.
Analyst Brian Lee noted that MP’s downstream expansion into refining and magnet production, accelerated by government partnerships, strategically positions the company as a key supply chain component.
What makes MP Materials unique is its vertical integration strategy: it owns Mountain Pass, one of the world’s best rare-earth ore bodies, in California.
MP is currently producing concentrate, refining neodymium-praseodymium oxide at about half its 6,000-ton annual target, and preparing to commission its Independence magnet facility in Fort Worth, Texas, by year-end.
The company has already invested close to $1 billion in building this integrated supply chain before government support arrived.
The Pentagon deal structure ensures MP remains well-funded for its ambitious expansion plans. With $2 billion in cash on the balance sheet, about $1 billion in debt, and a dramatically improving cash flow profile thanks to the $110 price floor starting in Q1 2026, MP Materials has the financial resources to execute without diluting shareholders.
The company plans to invest over $1 billion more and hire more than 1,000 manufacturing workers in the United States to expand heavy-rare-earth separation at Mountain Pass and build its second magnet manufacturing facility.
MP stock has also benefited from major commercial partnerships.
- General Motors has committed to buying 1,000 tons of magnets annually from the Independence facility.
- Apple announced a deal to take significant capacity while also investing $200 million in prepayments to help fund both magnet production and recycling capabilities.
- The Defense Department has agreed to purchase 100% of output from MP’s planned 7,000-ton “10X” facility for a decade, with the opportunity for MP to syndicate portions to commercial customers and share in the upside.
About 30% of neodymium-praseodymium oxide produced in China comes from manufacturing waste and scrap magnets.
By building integrated recycling capabilities at Mountain Pass, MP can recycle swarf and kerf from its magnet facilities back into the refining process, reducing costs and extending mine life.
Apple’s commitment to using recycled materials in its products provides a dedicated stream of post-industrial and post-consumer magnet waste that MP will process.
While Mountain Pass is a light, rare-earth-rich ore body, it produces enough volume that even small percentages of heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium translate to significant quantities.
The company is currently stockpiling hundreds of tons of heavy rare earth concentrate and building a separation facility that will be commissioned in mid-2026.
Combined with Apple’s recycled feedstock and potential third-party sourcing partnerships, MP expects to have sufficient heavy rare earth supply for both its Independence facility and the larger 10X facility.
Looking ahead, the geopolitical backdrop remains favorable for MP stock. While tensions between the U.S. and China may fluctuate, companies have learned they cannot rely on single-source supply chains for critical materials.
Even if export restrictions ease temporarily, China demonstrated it can pull that trigger again whenever geopolitical circumstances change.
That reality is driving sustained commercial interest in MP’s capabilities across every vertical that relies on rare-earth magnets.
The Trump administration’s focus on eliminating dependencies on China for critical minerals has created a supportive policy environment that should persist regardless of political changes.
The Pentagon has explicitly positioned MP Materials as America’s “national champion” for rare earths, similar to how other countries have national champions in strategic industries.
This designation brings not just financial support but also validation that opens doors to commercial partnerships and international collaborations, such as the Saudi venture.
MP Materials CEO James Litinsky has cautioned investors to be clear-eyed about the economics of rare earth projects, noting that “the vast majority of projects being promoted today simply will not work at virtually any price.”
MP’s structural advantages stem from its full vertical integration and its years of head start over potential competitors.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
