Key Stats for Hims & Hers Stock
- 52-Week Range: $14 to $70
- Current Price: $29
- Street Mean Target: $24
- Street High Target: $30
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $65
What Happened?
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), a direct-to-consumer telehealth platform selling personalized treatments across sexual health, dermatology, weight loss, and an expanding range of new specialties, sits at $29 as the market reprices what Hims & Hers Health stock is actually worth after the collapse of cheap compounded GLP-1 drug margins.
The company’s defining moment in 2026 came on March 9, when Novo Nordisk struck a deal with Hims to distribute branded Wegovy and Ozempic injections and pills through its platform at self-pay prices starting at $149 per month, ending a patent lawsuit that had threatened both the company’s growth strategy and its regulatory standing.
The transition carries a real cost: BofA cut its price target to $21 from $23 in early April, estimating GLP-1 EBITDA contribution could fall around 50% year over year as the company shifts from high-margin compounded products to lower-margin branded ones, projecting roughly $60 million to $90 million in quarterly GLP-1 revenue from the new arrangement.
Andrew Dudum, Co-Founder and CEO, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “before ever scaling our weight loss offering, we built a platform that surpassed $1 billion in revenue and achieved profitability by scaling offerings like sexual health and dermatology, specialties that continue to grow today with strong unit economics that allow us to fund the next opportunities for growth.”
The 2030 roadmap anchors the bull case: a $1.15 billion acquisition of Eucalyptus (closing mid-2026) adds Australia and Japan exposure, the international business targets more than $1 billion in annual revenue within three years, and an FDA expert panel review of 12 peptides announced April 16 could unlock a new revenue stream using the company’s existing California peptide facility — three catalysts that have nothing to do with the GLP-1 transition that drove Hims & Hers Health stock down from $70.
Wall Street’s Take on HIMS Stock
The GLP-1 transition has convinced most of Wall Street to stand down: the near-term EBITDA hit is real, and consensus is not yet willing to look through it to what the platform becomes on the other side.
HIMS generated $2.35 billion in revenue in 2025, growing 59% year over year, but consensus now projects growth decelerating sharply to around 16% in 2026, with EBITDA of around $330 million, essentially flat against the $318 million reported in 2025, as the margin drag from the branded GLP-1 transition and international investment absorbs most of the operating leverage the platform would otherwise generate.
Of 16 analysts covering Hims & Hers Health stock, 1 rates it a buy, 2 outperform, and 12 hold, with a mean price target of $24, implying the consensus view is that the stock at $29 is already priced ahead of what the transition period warrants.
The spread between the $16 bear target and $30 bull target tells the story: the low end prices in prolonged margin compression with limited recovery, while the high end reflects a scenario where the platform’s non-GLP-1 specialties carry the business through the transition intact.
Priced at roughly 26x forward EBITDA against a business that delivered 80% EBITDA growth in 2025, Hims & Hers Health stock appears undervalued relative to its platform’s demonstrated compounding history, with the Street treating a one-year transition headwind as a structural repricing rather than a temporary recalibration.
The FDA’s April 16 announcement that it will convene an expert panel to consider loosening restrictions on 12 peptides, including BPC-157 for wound healing and TB-500 for ulcerative colitis applications, is the signal the market has not fully priced: Leerink analyst Michael Cherny noted it “would allow the company to leverage its existing peptide facility,” potentially repurposing GLP-1 capacity toward new revenue streams at the exact moment the compounded weight-loss opportunity is contracting.
If the Novo deal’s branded GLP-1 subscriber conversion comes in at the low end of BofA’s 40% to 50% retention estimate, near-term free cash flow takes an additional hit the current consensus model has not absorbed.
Q1 2026 earnings on May 11 are the first real data point: watch whether GLP-1 subscriber attrition tracks at the bottom or top of management’s guided range, and whether new specialties (testosterone, menopause, Labs) are scaling fast enough to offset the revenue headwind.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR model assigns HIMS a mid-case price target of around $65, built on a revenue CAGR of around 11% from 2025 through 2030 and a net income margin expanding to around 11%, assumptions that track the company’s stated 2030 target of $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in EBITDA rather than what consensus currently prices.
At $29, with the mid-case implying around 127% upside and an annualized IRR of around 19%, the gap between where the stock trades and where the model lands makes Hims & Hers Health stock deeply undervalued if the platform’s non-GLP-1 diversification holds through the transition year.
The central question is whether HIMS is a platform business temporarily burdened by a GLP-1 transition, or a GLP-1 business that happens to have other products attached to it.
What Has to Go Right
- Non-GLP-1 specialties (sexual health, dermatology, hair loss) must sustain their majority share of 2026 revenue, consistent with management’s claim that these drove profitability before GLP-1s were ever part of the mix
- Testosterone, menopause support, and Labs each need to approach a $100 million annual revenue run rate within roughly 12 to 18 months, the timeline Dudum cited on the Q4 call as the near-term expectation for each
- Eucalyptus must close mid-2026, add at least $200 million in second-half revenue as guided, and put the collective international business on a path to breakeven within 12 to 18 months per CFO Yemi Okupe’s stated timeline
- The FDA peptide panel must produce a favorable recommendation, allowing HIMS to monetize its existing California facility and repurpose GLP-1 manufacturing capacity toward new, higher-margin personalized treatments
What Could Go Wrong
- BofA estimates GLP-1 EBITDA contribution falls around 50% year over year even under a favorable branded conversion; if subscriber churn runs above the 40% to 50% retention estimate, the shortfall hits both revenue and margins simultaneously
- The 2026 EBITDA guidance midpoint of around $338 million is essentially flat to 2025 actuals, and BofA’s own forecast sits roughly 20% below Wall Street consensus, suggesting the Street has not fully modeled the transition drag
- International markets (ZAVA, Livewell, Eucalyptus) are all guided to run near breakeven, meaning margin expansion is almost entirely dependent on domestic specialty scaling at a pace that new launches have not yet confirmed
- A data breach disclosed April 2 affecting a third-party customer service platform introduces reputational risk at the exact moment HIMS needs subscriber trust to execute conversions from compounded to branded GLP-1 treatments
Should You Invest in Hims & Hers Health, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
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