Key Stats for NVIDIA Stock
- Current Price: $202.06
- Street Target (Mean): ~$269
- TIKR Mid-Case Target: ~$498
- Potential Total Return: ~147%
- Annualized IRR: ~21% / year
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What Happened?
NVIDIA (NVDA) spent six months going nowhere, and then it moved 18% in 10 days.
According to CNBC, the surge is the longest winning streak NVIDIA has seen since a similar 10-day run in 2023, with the stock reclaiming $200 per share for the first time since its October all-time high of $212.19.
Bulls are calling it the breakout they have been waiting for. Bears point out that the stock is still about 5% below that all-time high, and none of the catalysts driving this rally are new.
The question investors are actively asking: has NVIDIA finally broken out, or is this another relief rally in a year that has frustrated at every turn?
The operating business never slowed down.
On February 25, 2026, NVIDIA reported Q4 fiscal year 2026 results: revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year over year, with data center revenue of $62.3 billion rising 75%. Adjusted EPS of $1.62 beat the Street estimate of $1.54 by 5.32%, the fifth straight quarter of earnings beats.
The stock still fell 5.46% the next session. That gap between the business and the stock price defined the NVDA trade all year.
In the Q4 earnings press release, Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, put it directly: “Computing demand is growing exponentially, the agentic AI inflection point has arrived. Grace Blackwell with NVLink is the king of inference today, delivering an order-of-magnitude lower cost per token, and Vera Rubin will extend that leadership even further.” Agentic AI refers to software systems that reason and act autonomously rather than simply responding to prompts, demanding far more compute per task.
The China angle adds a second catalyst.
At GTC 2026 in March, NVIDIA announced it is resuming manufacturing of its H200 chip for the Chinese market after receiving U.S. export licenses, reopening a revenue stream that had been closed for nearly a year.
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Is NVIDIA Undervalued Today?
At $202.06 with a forward P/E of around 24x, NVIDIA is not priced like a company that grew revenue 73% last year and generated $96.7 billion in free cash flow. The compression is real, and the reasons behind it are also real.
Export controls remain the primary overhang. NVIDIA excluded all China data center compute revenue from its Q1 FY2027 guidance of $78 billion. China and Hong Kong contributed $17.1 billion in FY2025 revenue.
That revenue is now effectively gone, and no one knows when or whether it will fully return. Separately, investors continue to debate whether the massive AI infrastructure buildout by cloud providers sustains into 2027.
TIKR’s forward estimates show a 2-year forward revenue CAGR of around 50% for NVIDIA, implying the Street believes the spending cycle continues. But that consensus is not unanimous.
What the valuation data makes clear is that NVIDIA is cheap relative to its peers on the metric that matters most for a capital-light, high-margin business.
On the TIKR Competitors page, NVIDIA trades at around 19x NTM EV/EBITDA (enterprise value to forward EBITDA, a measure of how much investors are paying for each dollar of operating earnings). AMD trades at around 38x on the same basis, ASML at around 28x, and Broadcom at around 24x. NVIDIA, which generates more free cash flow than any of those three and holds a dominant position in AI accelerator hardware and software, is the cheapest of the group.
At GTC 2026, Huang disclosed that NVIDIA now sees at least $1 trillion in purchase orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin through end-2027, double the $500 billion figure he cited at the same conference a year earlier. The Vera Rubin platform, due to ship in the second half of 2026, is designed to deliver 10 times more performance per watt than its Grace Blackwell predecessor, a critical advance in data centers where energy costs have become the primary constraint on expansion. That performance lead is what keeps NVIDIA’s gross margins elevated even as competition from AMD and Huawei grows.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $202.06
- TIKR Mid-Case Target: ~$498
- Potential Total Return: ~147%
- Annualized IRR: ~21% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model enters at $202.06 and projects a target of around $498 by January 31, 2031, roughly 4.8 years from today. That implies around 147% total return at an annualized IRR of around 21% per year.
The two revenue drivers are data center compute and networking. The model assumes around 20% annual revenue growth through fiscal 2031, anchored by the Blackwell-to-Rubin product cycle. NVIDIA’s full-year networking revenue exceeded $31 billion in FY2026, per the Q4 earnings call, up more than 10x from the year of the Mellanox acquisition. As AI clusters scale, networking becomes a larger share of total system cost. The margin assumption of around 56% net income in the mid-case is consistent with the 56.9% NVIDIA delivered in FY2026, and holds as long as NVIDIA continues delivering each chip generation ahead of the competition.
The high case, at around 22% revenue CAGR and around 59% net income margins, reaches around $1,112 per share by January 2031, a total return of around 450%. The low case, at around 18% revenue CAGR and around 53% margins, reaches around $577, still a return of around 185% from today. Even in the conservative scenario, the stock is materially undervalued at $202. The risk that breaks all three cases is a sustained pullback in hyperscaler capital spending before Vera Rubin ships at volume, compressing near-term revenue and triggering a multiple re-rate simultaneously.
Conclusion
Watch data center revenue at NVIDIA’s next earnings report on May 20, 2026. The number to watch is $71 billion or higher, consistent with data center’s recent share of total quarterly revenue against the $78 billion guidance midpoint. At or above that threshold, the Vera Rubin ramp is on track and non-China demand is holding. Below it, the duration debate restarts.
NVIDIA is executing at a historic pace, trading at the cheapest forward multiple it has carried in years, with $1 trillion in confirmed demand and a product cycle that has not fully shipped yet. The 18% surge this week is the market catching up to a business that never slowed down.
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Should You Invest in NVIDIA?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up NVIDIA, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
