Key Takeaways
- NIO stock fell 57% in a year to a $.37 close on October 2.
- Third-quarter deliveries rose 25.4% YoY to 109,178 vehicles, a sharp slowdown from 49.4% YoY growth in Q2, while September growth slowed further to 7.7%
- Analysts rate NIO 12 buys, 5 outperforms, 6 holds, and 1 underperform, and the $6 mean target sits 87% above the close.
- The mean target slipped just 4% over the year while NIO stock fell 57%, and holds dropped from 11 to 6.
Analysts added buys through a 57% slide. Check where NIO’s price targets sit on TIKR for free →
NIO Stock Lost 57% in a Year as Delivery Growth Slowed Despite Narrower Losses
NIO Inc. (NIO) closed at $3 on October 2, leaving NIO stock down 57% over the past year, and the slide steepened after its September 1 second-quarter report. That report narrowed the operating loss to RMB 347.2 million from RMB 4.91 billion, yet it guided third-quarter deliveries to 108,000 to 111,000 units, barely above the 107,658 NIO delivered in Q2. That guide implies 24% to 27.5% growth year over year, down from 49.4% in the second quarter.
The monthly figures confirm the slowdown. NIO delivered 35,836 vehicles in August, up 14.5% year over year, and 37,408 in September, up 7.7%. Management targets over 40,000 deliveries a month in the fourth quarter, a mark September missed.
Margins gave NIO stock no cushion. Vehicle margin slipped to 18.5% from 18.8% in the first quarter, and CFO Stanley Qu answered UBS’s question on the margin outlook this way: “we expect the material cost to continue to increase by another RMB 2,000 to RMB 3,000, but we will also take a series of countermeasures to mitigate this risk.” That adds to the roughly RMB 14,000 per car NIO has already absorbed since late 2025.
The Geely deal provided only brief support. Geely Holding Group agreed to take a 30% stake in NIO Power at a RMB 16 billion valuation, but after an initial positive reaction, NIO’s U.S.-listed shares fell from $3.59 on September 28 to $3.37 on October 2.
NIO stock fell 57% as quarterly delivery growth slowed from 49.4% in Q2 to 25.4% in Q3, while rising component costs pressured margins
Analysts Added Buys on NIO Stock as the Street’s $6 Target Sits 87% Above the Close
NIO stock carries 12 buys, 5 outperforms, 6 holds, and 1 underperform, up from 9 buys and down from 11 holds a year ago. The mean price target of $6 sits 87% above the $3 close, yet it slipped only 4% over a year in which the stock lost 57%. The lowest of 24 price targets, $4, still tops the close, so the slowdown that dragged the stock down has barely touched the targets.
So what is NIO stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
