Key Stats for Moderna Stock
- Price Change for Moderna stock: 17%
- $MRNA Share Price as of Jan. 13: $39.60
- 52-Week High: $45.40
- $MRNA Share Price Target: $36.75
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What Happened?
Moderna (MRNA) stock climbed on Tuesday after CEO Stéphane Bancel outlined a surprisingly strong finish to 2025 and set aggressive growth targets for the next three years.
The biotech company reported revenue of roughly $1.9 billion for 2025, beating the midpoint of guidance by $100 million.
- More impressively, Moderna slashed operating costs by nearly $2 billion compared to 2024.
- The company ended the year with $8.1 billion in cash, well above its previous target of $6 billion.
- That figure includes a $600 million drawdown from a new $1.5 billion credit facility with Ares Management.
- Combined with the remaining $900 million available under the facility, Moderna has roughly $9 billion in total liquidity.
Management is now targeting revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026, driven by geographic expansion and new product launches.
The company expects to reduce operating expenses further to between $4.2 billion and $4.6 billion by 2027, putting it on track to reach cash breakeven in 2028.
Bancel highlighted several upcoming catalysts, including potential approvals for Moderna’s flu vaccine and flu-COVID combo shot, as well as pivotal trial readouts for cancer and rare-disease programs.
The company’s personalized cancer vaccine, Intismeran, could deliver Phase III data in adjuvant melanoma as soon as this year.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Moderna Stock
The rally in Moderna stock suggests investors are finally buying into the post-pandemic turnaround story. After years of brutal cost-cutting and declining COVID vaccine sales, the company is demonstrating it can grow again without the emergency authorization tailwind.
The key to the bull case is geographic diversification. Moderna has locked in long-term supply deals with governments in the U.K., Canada, and Australia, guaranteeing steady revenue from factories built specifically for those markets.
Europe is also set to reopen in 2027, after Pfizer’s exclusive COVID contract expires. Europe has 90 million people over age 65 compared to 60 million in the U.S., representing a massive untapped market.
New product launches should provide additional momentum. Moderna’s mNEXSPIKE COVID vaccine captured 32% of the market among elderly Americans in its first partial year.
A full year of contracting could push that number higher. The company also expects approvals for its standalone flu vaccine in 2026, and a flu-COVID combo shot starting in Europe in 2027. Management believes Moderna could be the only flu-COVID combo on the market for at least a year.
The oncology pipeline represents longer-term upside. Intismeran showed strong Phase II results in melanoma, with 62% of patients experiencing distant metastasis-free survival at three years. Five-year data is coming in the next few weeks, and a Phase III readout could arrive later this year.
Moderna also highlighted encouraging early data for mRNA-4359, a wholly owned cancer therapy that showed responses in patients with advanced disease who had failed multiple checkpoint inhibitors.
Moderna stock has collapsed more than 90% from its all-time high as COVID vaccine demand cratered. The company burned through billions restructuring and still isn’t profitable. Competition in flu vaccines is brutal, and cancer trials can fail even with promising early data.
But the financial picture is improving fast. Moderna cut $2 billion in costs last year and plans another $500 million in cuts by 2027.
Gross margins should expand as volume increases and the company brings prefilled syringe manufacturing in-house. Multiple shots at regulatory approvals over the next 12 months give Moderna several ways to win.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
