Key Stats for Micron Technology Stock
- Past-30-Day Performance: 20%
- 52-Week Range: $62 to $456
- Valuation Model Target Price: $474
- Implied Upside: 15%
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What Happened?
Micron Technology stock shares climbed roughly 20% over the past 30 days, finishing near $414 per share as investors continued to price in strengthening AI-driven memory demand and improving pricing conditions across the industry.
The stock moved higher after CFO Mark Murphy said at the Wolfe Research conference that Micron’s financial outlook has strengthened since the last earnings call because “demand is significantly higher than our ability to supply.”
He reiterated that supply-demand conditions are expected to remain tight beyond 2026, confirmed Micron is already in high-volume production of HBM4 with customer shipments ramping in calendar Q1 earlier than previously indicated, and noted that calendar 2026 HBM supply is already sold out.
The company also announced new DRAM and NAND groundbreakings in New York and Singapore, along with a $1.8 billion Tongluo, Taiwan DRAM site acquisition expected to close in calendar Q2.
With incremental greenfield capacity not meaningfully contributing until 2027 and beyond, near-term supply remains constrained while AI infrastructure spending continues to expand.
As a result, investors are increasingly valuing Micron based on sustained pricing power and AI-related mix improvement rather than a short-lived memory rebound.
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Is Micron Technology Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 38.9%
- Operating Margins: 66.6%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 8.5x
Revenue estimates reflect growth from fiscal 2025 revenue of $37,378 million to fiscal 2028 revenue of $100,071 million, implying a 38.9% CAGR over that period.
That acceleration is largely driven by AI server deployments, which require significantly higher memory content per system.
High-bandwidth memory is central to this outlook. Management confirmed HBM4 is already in high-volume production and that calendar 2026 HBM supply is sold out, providing strong forward visibility.
As advanced memory products become a larger share of revenue mix, pricing strength and margin durability improve relative to prior cycles.
Supply additions remain gradual. Node transitions are becoming less efficient, and major greenfield projects will not meaningfully add output until 2027 and later. That dynamic supports sustained supply discipline at a time of structurally stronger demand.
Based on these inputs, the valuation model estimates a target price of $474, implying 14.6% total upside over the next 2.5 years.
Under your framework where upside above 6% qualifies as undervalued, Micron screens as Undervalued at current levels, with performance tied to continued AI infrastructure expansion, HBM mix growth, and disciplined capacity investment.
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