Key Takeaways:
- Canadian Live Commerce Expansion: eBay Inc. launched eBay Live nationwide in Canada on February 12, 2026, expanding its livestream commerce model across 190 markets and leveraging $75 billion in 2024 GMV to deepen engagement in high-value collectibles.
- Ownership Rotation: LSV Asset Management reduced its stake by 6% to 6 million shares worth $535 million while insiders sold 45 thousand shares for $4 million, leaving institutional ownership at 87% and insider ownership at 1%.
- Price Projection: Based on 6% revenue CAGR and 28% operating margins through 2027, eBay Inc. supports a $94 target price by December 2027 using a 13x multiple against rising EPS of $6.
- Total Return Math: From the current price of $83, eBay Inc. implies 13% total upside to $94 over 2 years, equating to a 7% annualized return under stable margin and multiple assumptions.
Breaking Down the Case for eBay Inc.
eBay Inc. (EBAY) expanded its live commerce strategy yesterday (February 12), launching eBay Live in Canada and aligning the rollout with major events, reinforcing engagement across a platform that facilitated $75 billion in 2024 gross merchandise volume.
The marketplace generated $10 billion in revenue in 2024, up from $10 billion in 2023, producing $7 billion in gross profit and sustaining a 72% gross margin that reflects disciplined take-rate and advertising economics.
Operating expenses totaled $5 billion in 2024, resulting in $2 billion of operating income and a 22% operating margin, stabilizing after a 21% margin in 2023 and signaling cost containment alongside modest revenue growth.
Forward estimates point to $11 billion in 2025 revenue and $12 billion in 2026 revenue, with EBIT projected at $3 billion and EPS rising toward $6, reinforcing steady cash generation despite mid single digit growth.
Institutional ownership stands at 87% after LSV Asset Management trimmed 6% of its position to 6 million shares valued at $535 million, while insiders sold 45 thousand shares totaling $4 million during the quarter.
Director of eBay Live North America Caroline Pougnier stated, “eBay Live brings the energy and fun of live discovery together with the trust eBay is known for,” underscoring management’s focus on transaction velocity and community engagement.
At $83 per share versus a modeled $94 target by December 2027, the stock reflects 13% total upside and a 7% annual return, framing debate around whether 6% revenue growth warrants a 13x earnings multiple.
What the Model Says for EBAY Stock
eBay sustains 28.1% operating margins on 5.5% revenue growth market assumption, supported by disciplined cost structure and $75 billion GMV scale.
The model embeds 5.5% revenue growth, 28.1% margins, and a 13.1x exit multiple, generating a $93.82 target price by 12/31/27.
That implies 13.2% total upside from $82.88 and a 6.8% annualized return over 1.9 years, below typical 10% equity hurdles.
The model signals Sell, as a 6.8% annualized return at 13.1x fails to compensate equity risk.
Generating only 6.8% annually, the return profile sits below a 10% equity hurdle rate and signals capital preservation over compounding, as 5.5% growth and 28.1% margins warrant just a 13.1x multiple.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for eBay stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 5.5%
eBay stock produced 1.7% revenue growth in 2024 after a 6% decline in 2022 and 3% recovery in 2023, positioning the platform as a mature marketplace tied to discretionary demand.
Gross merchandise volume reached $75 billion in 2024 across more than 190 markets, anchoring monetization to take rates and advertising intensity rather than unit growth alone.
Forward estimates call for 7.1% growth in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, while the February 12, 2026 launch of eBay Live in Canada extends a format first introduced in 2022.
The live commerce model adds real-time auctions with $1 starting bids and 30 second extensions, targeting higher engagement in collectibles categories already central to platform mix.
Delivering 5.5% assumes live commerce drives incremental spend without cannibalizing core GMV, while any slowdown in collectibles or consumer spending pushes growth back toward 1% to 3%.
This is above the 1-year historical revenue growth of 1.7%, as new monetization layers aim to lift spend per user, and valuation requires sustained mid single digit expansion.
2. Operating Margins: 28.1%
eBay stock reported 21.9% operating margins in 2024 and 21.2% in 2023, down from 28.4% in 2021 as expense normalization and category volatility reduced prior leverage.
Total operating expenses reached $5 billion in 2024 against $10 billion in revenue, keeping fixed cost leverage sensitive to modest changes in top-line growth.
EBIT margins are projected at 27.7% in 2026, implying cost discipline and advertising mix shift offset incremental investment in initiatives such as eBay Live expansion.
Maintaining 28.1% depends on stable marketing spend and controlled product investment, while slower growth quickly pressures margins given the largely fixed infrastructure base.
Margin recovery and growth assumptions interact, and any shortfall in monetization or engagement compresses earnings faster than revenue declines alone would suggest.
This is above the 1-year historical operating margin of 27.4%, as incremental mix shift toward advertising and services lifts profitability, and sustained cost control becomes central to valuation stability.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 13.1x
eBay stock reported 21.9% operating margins in 2024 and 21.2% in 2023, down from 28.4% in 2021 as expense normalization and category volatility reduced prior leverage.
Total operating expenses reached $5 billion in 2024 against $10 billion in revenue, keeping fixed cost leverage sensitive to modest changes in top-line growth.
EBIT margins are projected at 27.7% in 2026, implying cost discipline and advertising mix shift offset incremental investment in initiatives such as eBay Live expansion.
Maintaining 28.1% depends on stable marketing spend and controlled product investment, while slower growth quickly pressures margins given the largely fixed infrastructure base.
Margin recovery and growth assumptions interact, and any shortfall in monetization or engagement compresses earnings faster than revenue declines alone would suggest.
This is above the 1-year historical operating margin of 27.4%, as incremental mix shift toward advertising and services lifts profitability, and sustained cost control becomes central to valuation stability.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
eBay stock valuation hinges on marketplace demand, advertising monetization, and cost discipline as the company expands live commerce into Canada through 2029.
- Low Case: If collectibles demand softens and advertising mix stalls, revenue grows 4.6% and net margins hold near 22.2% → 0.1% annualized return.
- Mid Case: With steady GMV near $75 billion and disciplined spending, revenue grows 5.1% and net margins reach 23.6% → 5.9% annualized return.
- High Case: If eBay Live scales internationally and monetization improves, revenue reaches 5.7% and net margins approach 24.7% → 11.2% annualized return.
How Much Upside Does eBay Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
