Key Stats for Upstart Stock
- Price Change: -8.49%
- Current Price: $30
- Analyst Consensus Price Target: $54.50
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What Happened?
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) plummeted 13.9% to close near $33.54 on Wednesday, suffering a massive institutional selloff following a highly controversial fourth-quarter earnings report. The stock continued to fall another 9% on Thursday.
The company reported GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17, beating analyst estimates for GAAP earnings, which were set around $0.15. The company also beat on adjusted EPS, posting $0.50 vs estimates of $0.46.
Despite beating on revenue, GAAP, and non-GAAP earnings, the market reacted negatively to the sudden shift in corporate transparency.
Management announced it will stop providing quarterly financial guidance, opting instead to issue annual targets supplemented by monthly transaction volume updates.
This “blackout” on near-term data severely spooked Wall Street.
Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news, and by removing quarterly targets, Upstart effectively signaled a lack of near-term visibility.
Compounding the uncertainty, the company announced a major leadership shakeup. Co-founder Paul Gu will replace Dave Girouard as CEO on May 1st.
This combination of weak profit margins, an abrupt CEO transition, and reduced financial transparency convinced institutional investors to dump the stock immediately, entirely ignoring the company’s 86% growth in loan originations.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Upstart stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Upstart Undervalued Today?
During the earnings call, outgoing CEO Dave Girouard attempted to frame the guidance shift positively.
He stated: “Starting today, we’ve begun to publish the monthly transaction volume on our platform… Beyond that, we’ll also focus on providing annual guidance… With these upgrades… investors can better understand both the near-term dynamics and the long-term potential.”
Incoming CEO Paul Gu defended the company’s declining contribution margins, which dropped to 53% in Q4: “This is expected and intentional due to 2 dynamics… we have grown rapidly in secured products [auto and home]… segments which come with lower take rates but dramatically larger market sizes.”
CFO Sanjay Datta laid out the long-term vision to reassure investors: “For the 3-year period spanning 2025 to 2028… we are targeting to maintain a 35% compound annual growth rate… with a terminal adjusted EBITDA margin of around 25%.”
Read the full Upstart Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 Roadmap >>>
Relying on the more grounded Street Consensus, analysts still see a path to recovery if the new leadership can execute.
- Target Price: $57
- Current Price: ~$34
- Potential Upside: +68.8%
Valuation Deep Dive
The investment case for Upstart has quickly transitioned into a high-risk “show-me” story.
With the stock trading at ~$34, the market is severely penalizing the company for the guidance shift. The $57 target implies that if Upstart delivers on its ambitious 35% CAGR target, the stock could rebound significantly.
- The Margin Squeeze: The aggressive pivot into secured loans (auto and home) is dragging down contribution margins, raising concerns about near-term profitability despite expanding the Total Addressable Market.
- The Guidance Blackout: Moving away from quarterly guidance creates a dangerous information vacuum. Investors will likely demand a steeper discount on the stock until the newly promised monthly volume metrics prove the growth story remains intact.
- The Value Gap: The $56.64 target reflects a cautious optimism that Paul Gu’s AI-first vision will successfully expand Upstart from a niche unsecured personal lender into an “everything store for credit.”
If Upstart can navigate this leadership transition without losing institutional funding partners, the path back to $56.64 offers massive upside for contrarian investors willing to weather the volatility.
Conclusion: A turbulent transition. With 68.8% upside potential to the Street target, Upstart offers a high-reward setup, but investors must be prepared to fly blind without quarterly guidance.
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How Much Upside Does Upstart Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
